Market Highlight 24/10/2025
US existing home sales climbed in September to the highest in seven months. Wall Street’s three main indexes closed higher on Thursday as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings against shifting geopolitical risks. The Dow gained 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.89%. The US Dollar Index ended nearly flat at 98.925. GBP/USD fell 0.25% to 1.332, while EUR/USD edged up 0.06% to 1.162.
Gold rebounded on Thursday, rising 0.76% to settle at $4,125/oz, as geopolitical risks reignited safe-haven demand and investors positioned ahead of Friday’s key US inflation report. Oil prices extended their rebound to reach a two-week high, buoyed by US sanctions on major Russian suppliers that prompted Chinese and Indian energy firms to consider reducing Russian imports.
Key Outlook 24/10/2025
All eyes are on the long-awaited September US CPI report, expected to show headline inflation accelerating to 3.1% YoY (previous 2.9%). Despite signs of rising inflation, markets continue to price in a 25 bps Fed rate cut next week. However, tonight’s release carries extra weight as it marks the first major US economic report since the government shutdown began three weeks ago, potentially sparking heightened market volatility. Investors will also monitor manufacturing and services PMI data across major economies.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 14:00 GB Retail Sales SEP **
- 15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
- 20:30 US CPI YoY SEP ***
- 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT ***
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final OCT ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: GERMANY Ifo Business Climate, RBA Bullock Speech, US Durable Goods Orders & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision, US Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, GERMANY GDP & Unemployment Rate, EU GDP, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US GDP & Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: AU PPI, GERMANY Retail Sales, EU CPI, US Core PCE Price Index
Markets Analysis 24/10/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1656/1.1683
- Support: 1.1568/1.1540
The pair held firm at 1.1617, rebounding from 1.1585 as traders await U.S. CPI data (expected at 3.1% YoY). Eurozone confidence improved slightly, while the chart suggests support at 1.1568 with scope to retest 1.1656 if CPI data softens the dollar.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3392/1.3426
- Support: 1.3281/1.3248
The pair extended its five-day decline, holding just above 1.3300 as traders await UK Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM expected) and U.S. CPI. Technically, support at 1.3281 is key, while a rebound could target 1.3392 if sentiment improves.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 153.72/154.19
- Support: 151.79/151.33
USD/JPY climbed to 152.52 (+0.38%) as oil surged on U.S. sanctions against Russian majors, keeping the yen under pressure near multi-month lows. Technically, holding above 151.80 favors further upside toward 153.70.
US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)
- Resistance: 62.92/63.73
- Support: 60.27/59.45
WTI surged nearly 6% to $61.79 after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil fueled supply fears. Technically, prices broke a major downtrend line and reclaimed $60.27 as a new support. Holding above this zone favors a push toward $62.92, though momentum may face short-term pullbacks.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4214/4278
- Support: 4059/4008
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 50.00/50.46
- Support: 47.52/47.06
Spot gold rebounded 1% to $4,132/oz as geopolitical risks revived haven demand. From a technical view, the $4,059 zone acted as a strong rebound base after the sharp pullback, while price is now reclaiming the short-term ascending channel. Momentum suggests a test of $4,214 resistance, and a clear break above could reopen the path toward $4,278.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47050/47235
- Support: 46440/46251
The Dow Futures gained 0.31% to 46,734, lifted by strong energy and aerospace shares as earnings season remains mixed but with 86% of S&P 500 firms beating estimates. Technically, price holds above 46,440 support, with momentum favoring a climb toward 47,050 if the ascending trendline sustains.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25309/25427
- Support: 24820/24704
The NAS100 climbed 0.89% to 22,942, driven by tech rebound and strong quantum computing stocks, with Tesla up 2.3% despite earnings miss. Technically, the index is holding the uptrend line near 24,820, with upside momentum eyeing resistance at 25,309 if buyers sustain control.
BTC
- Resistance: 112739/114187
- Support: 108320/106497
Bitcoin steadied near $109K, stuck in a $100K–110K range after October’s flash crash erased $500B in market cap. Renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and whale short positions pressured sentiment. Technically, BTC is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, with resistance at 112,739 and key support at 108,320; a breakout could set the next trend
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