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Market accelerates profit-taking ahead of US CPI, Gold extends correction, U.S. stocks fall.

Key Outlook 23/10/2025

Investors will focus on the Eurozone October Consumer Confidence Index preliminary reading, which has remained relatively stable around -15 since May. Canada’s August retail sales are expected to rebound from prior contractions. In the U.S., attention will turn to whether weekly jobless claims can be released as scheduled.

 

Key Data and Events Today:

  • 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM AUG **
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 22:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash OCT **
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales SEP **

 

Tomorrow:

  • 07:30 JP CPI YoY SEP **
  • 08:05 RBA Bullock Speech ***
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM SEP **
  • 15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT **
  • 20:30 US CPI YoY SEP ***
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash OCT ***
  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final OCT ***

 

Markets Analysis 23/10/2025

 

EURUSD

20251023 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1634/1.1656
  • Support: 1.1568/1.1540

EUR/USD edged up 0.09% to 1.1600 after the planned Trump–Putin summit was suspended following Russia’s rejection of a Ukraine ceasefire. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. shutdown risks and Fed policy outlook. Technically, resistance is capped near 1.1634, while a break below 1.1568 support may trigger deeper downside.

 

GBPUSD

20251023 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3426/1.3460
  • Support: 1.3281/1.3248

GBP weakened as UK inflation held at 3.8% in September, below BoE expectations. Markets raised the probability of a BoE rate cut by year-end to 75%. GBP/USD slipped 0.13% to 1.3360, with 1.3281 as key support and potential rebound toward 1.3426 resistance if stabilized.

 

USDJPY

20251023 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 152.70/153.27
  • Support: 151.33/150.87

JPY has fallen 2.5% this month, its sharpest drop since July, as PM Takaichi signals expansionary fiscal policy and BoJ policy remains uncertain. Technically, USD/JPY broke above a falling trendline; holding 151.33 support may open 152.70–153.27, while a break lower risks 150.87.

 

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

20251023 US Crude Oil Futures (DEC) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 61.08/61.89
  • Support: 58.63/57.62

WTI crude rose over 4% to $59.66, Brent above $63.76, supported by stronger U.S. demand and upcoming U.S. sanctions on Russia. EIA data showed crude stocks fell by 0.96M barrels, underscoring resilient demand. Technically, the price has broken above the downtrend and remains stable above the 58.63 support level; holding firm opens the path to 61.08, while failure risks renewed pressure below 59.00.

 

Spot Gold

20251023 Spot Gold Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4214/4277
  • Support: 4008/3944

 

Spot Silver

  • Resistance: 49.52/50.00
  • Support: 47.05/46.47

Spot gold slipped to around $4,089/oz as profit-taking set in ahead of U.S. CPI. Technically, support is seen near $4,008–$3,944, while resistance lies at $4,214–$4,277. A breakout could restore bullish momentum, while failure may keep the price range bound.

 

Dow Futures

20251023 Dow Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 46813/47049
  • Support: 46251/46063

The Dow Futures fell 0.71% to 46,590, weighed by industrial weakness and mixed earnings, though strength in energy and select sectors provided support. Technically, 46,251 stands as a decisive support; holding this level sets the stage for a robust rebound. A break above 46,813 could trigger momentum toward 47,049 and potentially record highs, while a failure below 46,251 risks accelerating the downside correction.

 

NAS100

20251023 NAS100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 25049/25195
  • Support: 24588/24444

NAS100 dropped 0.93% pressured by weak tech earnings as Netflix tumbled 10.1% and semiconductors fell on TI’s outlook. Technically, the index is consolidating above 24,588 support, and a rebound toward 25,049 is possible if buyers defend this zone, though sentiment remains fragile before U.S. CPI.

 

BTC

20251023 BTC Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 111266/112739
  • Support: 104999/103550

Bitcoin slipped 0.6% to around $107,950, struggling to regain momentum after the early-October flash crash. A broader risk-off sentiment, weak gold, and scepticism over corporate crypto treasury strategies all weighed on demand. Technically, BTC faces heavy resistance near $111,266 with a descending trendline. Failure to break higher could see prices retest $104,999 support.

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