EURGBP is an option for traders on Monday as there is no high-level data in developed economies.
The euro will see the release of the employment rates, and the sterling will later have retail sales.
EURGBP – Weekly Chart
The euro versus the pound has rallied from support at the 0.8580 level, which also aligned with the moving average. Last week’s selling was muted, and that tight range between 0.8800 – 0.8875 will define the early week path.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone is expected to remain at 6.5%. An earlier release for the Italian employment rate will have to beat the 7.8% of last month.
The British economy is looking to beat last month’s BRC retail sales of 4.1%. Retail sales will continue to be “challenging” for H1 2023 following an “exceptionally difficult” year. The British Retail Consortium’s analysis predicts that sales will grow between 2.3% and 3.5% in 2023. Last year saw growth hit by rising inflation and weakened consumer demand. Those themes are expected to continue in the first six months of 2023, with sales projected to grow between 1% and 2.3%. The retail situation is likely to improve in the second half of the year by 3.6% to 4.7%.
The UK needs any help that it can get to ease recessionary pressures, but the BRC is gloomy about cost pressures:
“We also don’t see many signs at this stage of retailers’ input costs easing, with energy costs expected to rise by £7.5 billion as the government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme comes to an end in March, putting ongoing upwards pressure on prices.”
“There is cause for optimism in the second half of 2023, when we expect inflation to ease and improving consumer confidence to result in an improvement to sales growth, and corresponding volumes.”
The following high-level data for the EUR v GBP is UK GDP on Friday, with a yearly GDP release for Germany.
