Market Highlight 08/01/2026
U.S. private payrolls rose by 41,000 in December, according to the ADP report, reversing the previous month’s decline. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the U.S. would ban Wall Street institutions from buying single-family homes. U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday: the S&P 500 ended lower as financial stocks such as JPMorgan and Blackstone declined, while Nvidia and Alphabet lifted the Nasdaq as investors rotated towards artificial intelligence (AI)-related names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.94%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.16%.
The U.S. dollar was steady against major currencies as markets adjusted positions ahead of several U.S. labour-market releases later this week. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.07% to 98.68.
Gold prices fell more than 1% overnight as investors took profits after the recent rally. However, losses narrowed after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold settled down 0.98% at USD 4,452.77 per ounce. International oil prices extended their decline as investors digested President Trump’s agreement to import up to USD 2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude oil, a move expected to increase supply to the world’s largest oil consumer.
Key Outlook 08/01/2026
Thursday brings a heavy slate of Eurozone data, with attention on the November Producer Price Index (PPI) and the unemployment rate. PPI is expected to maintain modest month-on-month growth (forecast +0.2%), which is unlikely to alter the European Central Bank’s current policy path, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 6.4%. Markets will also watch U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to rise to 210,000 from the previous 199,000.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM NOV **
- 18:00 EU Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 18:00 EU PPI MoM NOV **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:30 US Balance of Trade OCT **
- 21:30 CA Balance of Trade OCT **
Tomorrow:
- 09:30 CN CPI YoY DEC **
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM NOV **
- 18:00 EU Retail Sales MoM NOV **
- 21:30 CA Unemployment Rate DEC **
- 21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls DEC ***
- 21:30 US Building Permits MoM OCT **
- 21:30 US Housing Starts MoM OCT **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JAN ***
Markets Analysis 08/01/2026
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1712/1.1734
- Support: 1.1644/1.1615
EUR/USD eased toward 1.168 as softer German inflation weighed on eurozone yields, while the dollar stayed supported ahead of NFP. Technically, the pair remains within a descending structure, with 1.172–1.1734 acting as a key resistance zone and 1.1644–1.1615 as near-term support. A clear break is likely to hinge on U.S. labor data outcomes.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3485/1.3505
- Support: 1.3426/1.3402
After failing to hold above the 1.3505–1.3485 resistance zone, GBP/USD retreated from the upper boundary of its rising channel, signaling fading bullish momentum. Price is now testing the 1.3426–1.3402 support area, aligned with the channel base, while a steadier USD and caution ahead of U.S. NFP keep the pair in consolidation rather than a directional trend.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 157.18/157.44
- Support: 156.08/155.82
USD/JPY remains capped below the 157.18–157.44 resistance zone, with the descending trendline limiting upside, keeping price in consolidation. The 155.82–156.08 support zone, aligned with the rising channel base, helps contain pullbacks. Firm U.S. yields support the dollar, while subdued geopolitical risk limits safe-haven demand for the yen.
US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)
- Resistance: 56.92/57.38
- Support: 55.54/54.97
WTI eased toward $56 and remains capped within a descending channel, with resistance at $56.92–57.38. Key support sits at $55.54–54.97, and a break may expose $54.90. On the fundamental side, Trump’s Venezuela oil deal has raised supply expectations, keeping crude under pressure.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4509/4550
- Support: 4412/4379
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 81.87/83.92
- Support: 75.38/73.37
Gold eased toward $4,460 amid profit-taking after the recent rally. Technically, the broader uptrend remains intact, with key support at $4,412–4,379 and resistance at $4,509–4,550. On the macro side, softer U.S. jobs data continues to support expectations of a Fed rate cut, cushioning downside risks.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49772/50088
- Support: 48742/48431
The Dow Futures retreated after hitting record intraday highs, signaling fading momentum at elevated levels. Technically, the index remains within an ascending channel, with resistance near 49,772–50,088 and support around 48,431–48,742. On the macro side, weakness in financials and defense stocks, alongside policy uncertainty and upcoming data, has tempered risk appetite.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26179/26449
- Support: 25290/25016
The NAS100 outperformed, supported by AI and mega-cap tech stocks, with price holding within an ascending channel. Technically, resistance around 26,179–26,449 caps upside, keeping the index range-bound, while 25,016–25,290 acts as key support. Fundamentally, flows favor large-cap tech, though widening valuation divergence tempers upside momentum.
BTC
- Resistance: 92,331/93,571
- Support: 89,604/88,385
Bitcoin slipped towards $92,000 amid geopolitical risks and pre-NFP caution. Technically, price remains capped by the $92,331–93,571 resistance zone, keeping BTC range-bound, with key support at $88,385–89,604. On the news front, MSCI’s decision to retain crypto treasury firms lifted related stocks but failed to ignite a broader crypto rally.
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