Market Highlight 21/11/2025
US job growth accelerated to 119,000 in September, but the labor market remained weak as the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest level in four years. US stocks reversed early gains and closed sharply lower on Thursday. The Nasdaq recorded its lowest close since September 11, while the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since September 10. The Dow Jones down 0.84%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%. The US Dollar strengthened against several major currencies, testing the six-month high reached in early November.
Gold prices declined on Thursday as investors digested the US September employment report, which showed stronger-than-expected job creation and reduced expectations for a December rate cut. Oil prices also fell after the Trump administration urged Ukraine to accept a peace agreement with Russia to end the conflict that has lasted more than three years.
Key Outlook 21/11/2025
Today, major economies will release their November flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Germany and the United Kingdom are expected to remain in contraction, while the Eurozone manufacturing sector is projected to stay in expansion. Market attention will focus on the US Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to remain expansionary but ease slightly to 52, compared with the previous reading of 52.5.
Key Data and Events Today
- 15:00 GB Retail Sales MoM OCT **
- 16:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 17:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 17:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 22:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final NOV ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: Japan Holiday, GERMANY Ifo Business Climate, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday: GERMANY GDP, US Pending Home Sales & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, US Retail Sales
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, UK Autumn Budget, US GDP & Core PCE Prices, US Initial Jobless Claims & Durable Goods Orders, US New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Thursday: U.S. Holiday, Fed Beige Book, EU Economic Sentiment, GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence, ECB Minutes
- Friday: JP Unemployment Rate, GERMANY CPI & Unemployment Rate, CA GDP
Markets Analysis 21/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1584/1.1612
- Support: 1.1495/1.1467
EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1533 as strong U.S. September jobs data lifted the dollar and dampened December rate-cut bets, triggering fresh volatility. The pair is currently capped below the 1.1584 resistance, and the rebound lacks momentum; unless buyers reclaim this level, price may form a lower high and extend its decline toward 1.1495.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3137/1.3168
- Support: 1.3040/1.3009
GBP/USD inched up toward 1.3087 but remains pressured near monthly lows as strong US September jobs data keeps dollar demand firm. Technically, the pair is attempting a rebound from the 1.3040 support zone, yet upside remains capped below 1.3137 resistance, where sellers are likely to re-enter.
USDJPY
· Resistance 157.88/158.38
- Support: 156.88/156.25
USD/JPY climbed to around 157.6 after briefly spiking toward 157.9, as strong U.S. jobs data lifted Treasury yields and reinforced the dollar’s advantage. On the chart, the pair is holding above 156.88 support within a steep uptrend, with bulls eyeing resistance near 157.88, though any hint of Japanese intervention could trigger a sharp pullback.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.16/59.81
- Support: 57.58/57.04
WTI hovered near $59.14 as substantial U.S. inventory draws offered some support, but progress on Russia-Ukraine peace talks revived oversupply fears and kept rallies in check. Technically, prices consolidate just above the $58.30 support but remain capped below $59.16; failure to reclaim this resistance could see a further slide toward $57.58.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4161/4204
- Support: 4024/3981
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 51.87/52.47
- Support: 49.34/48.76
Gold slipped toward $4,058, pressured by stronger U.S. September payrolls that reduced December Fed-cut odds and boosted the dollar. Price is still consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with $4,024 acting as key support and $4,161 as near-term resistance. A breakout from this tightening range will likely dictate the next directional move.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46240/46593
- Support: 45106/44747
The Dow futures dropped toward 45,757, weighed by a sharp reversal in Nvidia and surging volatility ahead of December’s Fed meeting. Price action now sits below the former support-turned-resistance at 46,240–46,593, and the rejection from this supply zone signals weak upside momentum. Technically, unless buyers reclaim 46,240, the index risks extending its decline toward 45,106 support.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24499/24728
- Support: 23741/23445
NAS100 slipped toward 24,054 as semiconductor stocks dived 4.8% and Nvidia’s intraday reversal deepened risk aversion. Price action now hovers below the 24,499 resistance zone, with the chart showing a series of lower highs, hinting at further downside toward 23,741 if bearish momentum persists.
BTC
- Resistance: 89293/90291
- Support: 85988/84973
Bitcoin held around $86,900–$89,300 after briefly slipping below $90,000, with mild $75M ETF inflows hinting at early institutional interest returning. On-chain data shows the 30-day MVRV is profoundly damaging, indicating short-term undervaluation. Technically, BTC faces resistance at $89,293–$90,291, and a failure to reclaim this zone risks a retest of $85,988 support.
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