Market Highlight 20/11/2025
The latest Federal Reserve minutes showed that several policymakers opposed another rate cut in December, further deepening doubts over whether the Fed will lower borrowing costs again at its December 9–10 meeting. Traders now assign only about a 25% probability to a December cut. The Dow Jones rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.38%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.59% to 100.17, while the euro slipped 0.47% to 1.1526.
Following the release of the Fed minutes, gold trimmed gains as market participants shifted their focus toward upcoming economic data for clues on the U.S. rate path. Spot gold settled at $4,080.66 per ounce, up 0.3%. Oil prices fell after reports suggested the United States is renewing efforts to push for an end to the Russia–Ukraine conflict and has drafted a framework for negotiations.
Key Outlook 20/11/2025
With the U.S. government shutdown lasting more than a month—and two consecutive nonfarm payrolls reports missing—the long-awaited September NFP will finally be released tonight. This marks the beginning of a return to regular U.S. data publication and may usher in significant market volatility.
The market expects nonfarm employment to rise by 50,000 (previous: 22,000), unemployment to hold at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings to maintain a moderate monthly increase of 0.3%. Traders should note that markets have already partially priced in these expectations, meaning price action could reverse or adjust after the data release, depending on whether the results meet or diverge from the consensus.
Key Data and Events Today
- 15:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY OCT **
- 21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls SEP ***
- 21:30 US Unemployment Rate SEP ***
- 23:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash NOV **
- 23:00 US Existing Home Sales OCT **
Tomorrow:
Nymex Crude Oil December Futures Expires ***
- 06:00 AU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 07:30 JP Core CPI YoY OCT **
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 15:00 GB Retail Sales MoM OCT **
- 16:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 17:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 17:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 22:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash NOV **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final NOV ***
Markets Analysis 20/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1584/1.1612
- Support: 1.1495/1.1467
EUR/USD remained under pressure as fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut strengthened the dollar. Price is retesting the 1.1584–1.1612 supply zone on the 4-hour timeframe, and a rejection here could drive the pair toward 1.1495. Markets now await the delayed U.S. NFP for directional clarity.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3114/1.3139
- Support: 1.3009/1.2985
GBP/USD slipped toward 1.3050 as soft U.K. inflation strengthened expectations for a December BoE rate cut. The stronger dollar added downside pressure. Price may now retrace and retest the 1.3114 resistance zone, and a failure to reclaim it could see the pair extend lower toward 1.3009.
USDJPY
· Resistance 157.86/158.11
- Support: 156.24/155.98
USD/JPY climbed toward 157.00 amid expectations of a large Japanese fiscal package, which pressured the yen. Although Japan’s finance minister voiced concern, verbal intervention failed to slow the move. As long as price holds above 156.24, the structure favors a push toward the 157.86–158.11 zone.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 61.02/61.82
- Support: 58.49/57.71
WTI dropped to $59.44 (-2.1%) after reports that the U.S. is pushing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework, raising expectations of increased Russian supply and reviving oversupply worries. Technically, price remains capped by the descending trendline, and any rebound that fails near $61 risks another rollover toward the $58.49–57.71 zone.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4161/4204
- Support: 4024/3981
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 52.47/53.07
- Support: 49.93/49.34
Spot gold hovered near $4,090 as December rate-cut odds fell to 30%, with the Fed minutes revealing divisions over further easing. Momentum is attempting to rebuild, and the price may swing between $4,060 and $4,120 ahead of the delayed NFP. A clean break above 4,161 could extend upside, while failure to hold 4,060 risks a dip toward 4,024.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46593/46946
- Support: 45452/45106
The Dow futures inched up 0.10% as tech-led gains lifted sentiment ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, though the Fed minutes’ hawkish tone limited broader upside. Technically, the index remains vulnerable after slipping below the rising trendline, and any rebound failing beneath 46,593 may turn lower again toward the 45,452 area.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24961/25194
- Support: 24207/23978
The NAS100 gained 0.59% as Nvidia surged 2.8% and extended gains after hours on upbeat revenue guidance. Yet the Fed minutes’ softer expectations for a cut kept broader upside in check. Technically, NAS100 remains heavy below 24,961, and repeated failures to reclaim this zone could see momentum roll over toward the 24,207 support area.
BTC
- Resistance: 94595/95576
- Support: 90277/89293
Bitcoin slipped toward $92,000 as risk sentiment softened ahead of the long-delayed U.S. NFP and Fed officials continued to stress limited room for further easing. With multiple supports now turned into resistance, rebounds toward $94,595 may struggle to hold, leaving the door open for a retest of $90,277.
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