差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

升息压力冲击市场,今年美股ETF投资者应该如何投资布局?

近年来,ETF产品规模在迅速上涨,ETF相关的投资日益受到投资者的关注,尤其是新兴市场ETF,较高的国家增长率也为投资者带来更高回报。不过,投资这些市场也意味着承受一定风险,包括新兴市场通常股票更容易波动 ;容易受到地缘政治、货币和治理风险的影响等。

相对而言,美股ETF发展极为成熟,表现稳健性高,同样受到全球投资者青睐,尤其是个人投资者。今天,我们主要谈谈美股ETF的特点,以及目前哪些产品表现更优异,希望能为开始接触ETF的投资者提供更多信息。

ETF名为 “交易型开放式指数基金”,是一种追踪特定指数,是获证券及期货事务监察委员会(证监会)认可,而又在交易所买卖的基金。ETF买卖程序和花费与一般股票类似,只不过买的不是个别股票,而是以基金的形式,相当于投资者买一只ETF就购买了这个指数的所有成份股。

在多样性方面,美股ETF的优势显而易见,数量、类型和规模上全球领先,目前市场发展极为成熟。Wind数据显示,美国ETF数量超2000只,最新资产规模超过6.25万亿美元,产品类型覆盖股票、债券、大宗商品、房地产、外汇和波动率等,甚至还包括反向ETF、杠杆ETF等特殊品种。

其次,稳定性更佳,更加适合个人投资者和刚入门的投资者操作。根据深交所发布的全球ETF行业发展年度报告显示,过去10年美国ETF年均复合增长率达到18.4%。加上ETF具有分散风险的特点,适合中长线的投资,投资者可将其当作定投资产长期持有,同时持有几只流通性好的ETF,更好地分散投资风险。由于美股ETF透明度高,和股票市场相同,可以进行实时价格的交易。

不过,众多投资者普遍较为担心美国国内的通胀问题,如今全球面临升息的浪潮,美联储此前已经宣布加速缩减购债和今年内将启动多轮加息,也为股票市场前景带来较大不确定性,难免会让投资者担心会影响到ETF的表现。首席美股策略师对市场作出警告,在美联储最近几个加息周期中,首次加息后的三个月内,预计标普大盘将平均下跌6%。价值、周期、高质量股票往往在加息开启后半年内跑赢大盘,但是高估值的成长股同期表现最差。

在通胀高企的情况下,建议投资者在选股的时候留意地产、金融相关的特别股,相信这些是将受惠升息的概念股,能够帮助整体投资组合对抗通胀,去年这些类型的ETF也表现优异。如果通胀问题之后变得更加严峻,投资者还可以考虑选择稳定配息收益的地产 ETF。其实,正是美股多样性的特征,才能够更加灵活、有效地应对复杂的市场变化。

在选股方面,去年表现较好的ETF主要集中在能源ETF,相信今年这样的趋势会持续。受疫情影响全球供应链紧张、需求不断扩大、俄乌之间军事冲突等因素影响,原油期货价格持续走高,市场人士也普遍看好今年的原油市场。不过,值得一提的是,海运ETF是去年涨幅最高的ETF类型,跟踪波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)的Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF,去年累计上涨超244%。由于供应链紧张情况不会短期缓和,疫情持续在蔓延,就今年来看,未来全球可用干散货、集装箱船舶数量依然紧俏,预计BDI今年的表现仍可观,投资者可以密切留意。

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