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在日本国债拍卖再次疲软后,美元兑日元汇率上升

日本国债拍卖又一次表现疲弱,促使交易员缩减了近期的日元多头交易。

USDJPY – 4H Chart
美元兑日元- 4小时图

美元兑日元有可能跌至4月低点,但目前已从142.40的支撑位反弹。该水准可能成为美元升势的基础,若人气保持正面,目标位为149.00。

日本拍卖的35亿美元40年期政府债券创下了自2024年7月以来的最低需求水平。日本的债券销售一直是一件很容易预测的事情,但最近的疲软销售引起了警惕。

周三的发售是日本长期债券发行计划的一部分,但由于国内寿险公司和长期买家退出,投资者参与度较低。一些交易商现在将这一事件称为“买家罢工”。有报道称财政部已与投资者和经纪人接洽,40年期债券收益率跌至三周以来的最低点3.29%。

巴克莱分析师指出,最近的销售突显出脆弱的供需平衡,而私营部门的兴趣继续减弱。日本首相石破茂将日本经济与之前的希腊债务危机相提并论后,这种情况引起了一些关注。

在最近一次债券拍卖之前,日本财务大臣表示,他正在“密切关注”债券市场的发展。日本央行行长表示,央行正在监测近期的波动,重点关注其对短期债券的影响。

法国兴业银行的斯蒂芬•斯普拉特表示,业绩“疲软,但符合”市场的预期。“新闻标题会说是去年7月以来的最低水平,但在公债收益率普遍受到冲击的背景下,这个结果并不太令人震惊,”他补充道。

随着世界各国政府在通胀环境下开始耗尽无尽支出和债务的空间,这种情况仍值得关注。

高盛分析师上周表示,日本政府债券是“全球期限煤矿中的金丝雀”。

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