Key Takeaways
Today’s Focus: Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index at 17:30 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 22:30 (GMT+8) will offer updates on business conditions. The broader focus is the Fed decision at 02:00 on October 29, followed by its press conference at 02:30. Markets broadly expect a hold and will assess the December outlook. US GDP and PCE inflation follow later that day; ECB and BoJ decisions also feature this week. |
Global Market Review 26/10/2026
- Friday, October 23: The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16.
- The S&P 500 declined 0.52% to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.21% to 25,955.34.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points to about 4.999%.
- WTI futures gained 3.8% to settle at $103.27 a barrel, while Brent rose 3.1% to $116.72, its highest settlement since April.
- Monday morning’s chart snapshots showed USOIL near $101.51, gold near $3,987, and Bitcoin near $79,830.
Economic Calendar
Key Events on October 26 (GMT+8)
- New Zealand holiday
| Time (GMT+8) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | Germany Ifo Business Climate OCT | ** |
| 22:30 | US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index OCT | ** |
Key Events on October 27 (GMT+8)
| Time (GMT+8) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | US Building Permits MoM Final SEP | ** |
| 20:15 | US ADP Weekly Employment Change | *** |
| 20:30 | US Durable Goods Orders MoM SEP | *** |
| 22:00 | US CB Consumer Confidence OCT | ** |
| 22:00 | US New Home Sales SEP | ** |
| 22:00 | US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index OCT | ** |
Markets Analysis 26/10/2026
- Resistance: 1.1246/1.1278
- Support: 1.1176/1.1143
Analyst’s View: France’s fiscal uncertainty continues to weigh on the Euro, while today’s German Ifo survey will offer a fresh read on business sentiment. With the Fed and ECB both deciding this week, the pair is likely to remain sensitive to differences in their guidance on inflation and further tightening. EUR/USD is near 1.1221 after rebounding from 1.1190. Price has moved above the descending channel’s midline and the 1.1215 Fibonacci level but remains below the 1.1246–1.1278 resistance zone. A break below 1.1215 would shift attention to 1.1176 and then 1.1143.
Bias: Neutral within a Descending Channel
- Resistance: 1.3407/1.3439
- Support: 1.3333/1.3304
Analyst’s View: UK inflation at 3.5% continues to support expectations of a November BoE hike, providing some support for Sterling. However, stronger US business activity has supported the Dollar, while the October 28 UK Budget adds domestic uncertainty alongside this week’s Fed decision. GBP/USD is near 1.3384 after consolidating below 1.3407. The pair remains within a rising channel and has recovered above its midline and the 1.3367 level. A sustained break above 1.3407 would bring 1.3439 into focus.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
- Resistance: 157.36/157.66
- Support: 156.76/156.38
Analyst’s View: Japan’s firmer inflation and increased demand for the Yen during periods of weaker risk appetite continue to influence the pair ahead of the BoJ decision. The Fed’s guidance will also matter: a firmer US yield outlook could support a rebound, while renewed equity weakness could strengthen demand for the Yen. USD/JPY is near 156.86 after recovering from the 156.38 area, but the rebound remains below 157.06 and near the descending channel’s midline. A break below 156.76 would expose the next Fibonacci level at 156.08.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
- Resistance: 103.75/106.68
- Support: 99.11/96.77
Analyst’s View: Oil has eased after reports that immediate US strikes on Iran were ruled out, easing near-term supply concerns. However, ongoing threats to Saudi energy infrastructure leave the market sensitive to further disruption. Prices therefore remain responsive to both signs of diplomatic progress and any escalation that affects regional supplies. USOIL is near $101.51 after advancing toward $103.75 and then retreating below the rising channel’s midline. The immediate reference level is $101.45. Holding above it would preserve scope for another test of $103.75, followed by $106.68.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish within a Rising Channel
- Resistance: 4032/4050
- Support: 3957/3940
- Resistance: 55.04/55.41
- Support: 53.04/52.67
Analyst’s View: Elevated energy prices continue to complicate the inflation outlook ahead of the Fed decision. Some institutional brokers have also identified selling by trend-following funds as a source of downward pressure on gold.
Gold is near $3,987, below $4,000 and the $3,993 Fibonacci level, in the lower half of its descending channel. Below intermediate support at $3,975, the marked support zone is $3,957–$3,940. A recovery above $3,993 and $4,010 would signal stabilization, but $4,032 and $4,050 remain marked resistance levels.
Silver faces pressure alongside gold, now trading near $53.95 and consolidating below $54.17. A break below $53.80 and $53.42 would bring $53.04 and $52.67 into focus. A recovery to $54.17 and $54.65 would improve the short-term picture, with the marked resistance zone then at $55.04–$55.41.
Bias: Gold & Silver Cautiously Bearish
- Resistance: 52582/52776
- Support: 51965/51774
Analyst’s View: Dow also faced selling pressure last Friday as energy costs rose and investors reassessed the interest-rate outlook. Monday’s modest recovery offers some relief, but the Fed decision and company guidance will help determine whether higher financing and operating costs are affecting earnings expectations. US30 is near 52,243 after retreating from the 52,963 area and moving below 52,346. Price is near the midline of the shallow range marked on the chart, with 52,155 as an immediate reference point. Below 52,155, the marked supports are 51,965 and 51,774.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
- Resistance: 29135/29439
- Support: 28747/28443
Analyst’s View: Concerns about how AI investment is financed and when it will generate returns remain central to technology shares. This week’s earnings will test those assumptions, while the Fed’s policy guidance may shift borrowing costs and the valuation outlook. An early futures rebound therefore needs to be assessed against the broader decline. NAS100 is near 28,984, below the 29,135–29,439 resistance zone and in the lower half of its descending channel. A break below 28,747 would expose it to 28,443, then 28,129.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
- Resistance: 80455/81048
- Support: 79105/78491
Analyst’s View: Bitcoin’s recovery remains sensitive to technology-sector sentiment and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook. Elevated oil prices heighten inflation uncertainty, while the weekend selloff and reported liquidations show how leverage can amplify price moves. Its return below $80,000 indicates that the earlier rebound has not yet established lasting support. Bitcoin is nearly $79,830, within a descending channel, just above the $79,698 Fibonacci level. If $79,698 gives way, the next marked supports are $79,105 and $78,491. A move above the resistance zone would be needed to improve the short-term outlook.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
