(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key Takeaways
Geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices off their lows, but gains were capped by a more hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar, with US crude futures slipping back below $94. Safe-haven demand helped gold hold $4,250 before rebounding to $4,280. Japanese equities outperformed on strength in chip stocks, while Chinese, Hong Kong, and European stocks came under pressure amid reflation concerns and a high-rate environment. Today’s focus is on German GfK Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders, and final Michigan Consumer Sentiment; weaker readings could temper rate-hike expectations. |
Global Market Review 25/09/2026
- US stock indices diverged as markets weighed economic data and geopolitical developments.
- Dow fell for a third straight day, closing 161 points lower (-0.31%), while the S&P 500 posted a milder decline, slipping 1.9 points (-0.02%).
- Nasdaq gained 3.34 points (+0.03%) at the close, as strong AI-related demand offset concerns over tech revaluation.
- The US Dollar Index rose to a near two-month high after a strong PMI reading of 58.4 raised concerns about sticky inflation and revived expectations of Fed rate hikes.
- Gold slipped to a one-week low amid higher yields and a firmer dollar, then found support at $4,250 and rebounded to around $4,280.
- Oil rebounded as wide gaps in US-Iran talks lifted geopolitical risk, with WTI trading near $94.8 in Asia on Friday.
- Japanese stocks gained, led by chipmakers, while Chinese, Hong Kong, and European markets came under pressure; the Hang Seng and China A50 opened lower ahead of the China and Hong Kong holidays.
Key Events Today:
| Time (GMT+8) | Event | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence OCT | ** |
| 20:30 | US Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG | ** |
| 22:00 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final SEP | *** |
Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)
- Monday: JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday: AU RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, EU Economic Sentiment, CA GDP, US JOLTS Job Openings, US CB Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI, CN NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, UK GDP Final & Unemployment Rate, EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate, EU GERMANY CPI Prel, US ADP Employment Change, US Core PCE Price Index, US GDP, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change.
- Thursday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, JP, EU, GERMANY, UK, US S&P Manufacturing PMI, EU Unemployment Rate, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending
- Friday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, JP Unemployment Rate, EU CPI Flash, US Non-Farm Payrolls.
Markets Analysis 25/09/2026
- Resistance: 1.1412 / 1.1435
- Support: 1.1342 / 1.1312
Analyst View: The euro would come under pressure if German GfK Consumer Confidence continues to deteriorate. Hawkish readings from US Durable Goods Orders and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment later today would further pressure the euro.
Bias: Under Pressure
- Resistance: 1.3274 / 1.3333
- Support: 1.3179 / 1.3119
Analyst View: If the dollar retreats amid weaker Durable Goods Orders and consumer sentiment today, sterling may stabilize in the short term. Tonight’s US Durable Goods Orders and final Michigan Consumer Sentiment results will guide GBP/USD toward the weekly close.
Bias: Short-term Stabilization
- Resistance: 159.29 / 160.40
- Support: 158.42 / 157.53
Analyst View: Safe-haven demand drove the yen stronger, leaving USD/JPY choppy around 158.50 in the near term. However, hawkish US data this evening could push the pair back to 159.
Bias: Mildly Bullish with Increasing Volatility
- Resistance: 95.66 / 97.79
- Support: 91.45 / 88.78
Analyst View: Oil prices remain in consolidation, with US inventories and Middle East tensions as key drivers of direction.
Bias: Range-bound
- Resistance: 4298 / 4317
- Support: 4259 / 4235
- Resistance: 64.30 / 64.92
- Support: 63.07 / 62.29
Analyst View: Gold’s direction depends on Treasury yields and the US dollar; if they weaken, gold could stabilize and rebound. Ahead of any rebound, watch support at $4,259 and $4,235. Silver is tracking gold and remains range-bound in the short term.
Bias: Stabilizing
- Resistance: 52,037 / 52,407
- Support: 50,811 / 50,332
Analyst View: Dow has drifted lower for three straight days. Watch the impact of US data on rate-hike expectations; if inflation expectations rise, the index is likely to remain under pressure.
Bias: Under Pressure
- Resistance: 30,568 / 30,807
- Support: 30,322 / 30,022
Analyst View: Profit-taking pressure on technology stocks remains; Nasdaq may extend its correction if data disappoints.
Bias: Short-term Correction
- Resistance: 86,027 / 86,901
- Support: 83,180 / 82,320
Analyst View: Bitcoin remains range-bound near $84,000 after a pullback from recent highs, as elevated Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weigh on risk appetite. Holding above 83,180 would keep the recovery intact, while a break above 86,027 is needed to resume the uptrend.
Bias: Range-bound
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
