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U.S. Expands Long‑Bond Buybacks, Gold Surges Past $4,500

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

FOMC Minutes: Inflation concerns deepened, with many officials noting that if inflation fails to ease, further rate hikes may be necessary. However, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to double the size of its long‑bond buyback operations, driving yields lower. This boosted gold and equities, while the dollar accelerated its decline.

Geopolitical risk: According to Reuters, the UAE has decided to suspend all financial and economic ties with Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, raising investor concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Today’s focus: Australia July Unemployment Rate (Forecast 4.4%). Germany’s July PPI (Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.6%) serves as a leading indicator of upstream inflation in Europe, shaping expectations for Eurozone prices. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 210K, Previous: 209K) is a key indicator of labor market strength.

 

Global Market Review 20/08/2026

  • U.S. equities closed modestly higher on Wednesday as falling Treasury yields offset weakness in tech stocks. Dow +0.22%, S&P 500 +0.21%, Nasdaq +0.16%.
  • The dollar fell to its lowest level since late May against major currencies.
  • Treasury yields dropped after Washington intervened to ease bond market stress, lifting gold more than 4% to a 2.5‑month high.
  • Middle East tensions escalated, Brent crude hit a four‑week high, and WTI crude held near three‑week highs.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 09:30 AU Unemployment Rate JUL **
  • 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI JUL **
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 22:00 US CB Leading Index JUL **

August 21 (GMT+8)

  • 07:30 JP CPI JUL **
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash AUG **
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales JUL **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash AUG **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash AUG **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash AUG **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash AUG ***

 

Markets Analysis 20/08/2026

20260820 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1693 / 1.1737
  • Support: 1.1657 / 1.1623

Treasury buyback expansion indirectly lifted EUR/USD to its highest in 2.5 months.

Analyst View: Largest daily gain since March, targeting 1.1700. But caution warranted near late‑May highs.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260820 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3626 / 1.3668
  • Support: 1.3558 / 1.3516

GBP/USD surged on Wednesday, supported by strong UK inflation data, hitting its highest since May 11.

Analyst View: After the biggest rally since late July, watch for stability above 1.3600 to challenge May highs.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260820 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.05 / 159.42
  • Support: 157.87 / 157.50

USD/JPY fell sharply on Wednesday, following a dollar decline, the biggest since early August intervention, and hit its lowest level in two weeks.

Analyst View: Broke the consolidation range but held the 158-mark support, offering temporary respite.

Bias: Correction

20260820 US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 85.68 / 86.35
  • Support: 83.42 / 82.89

U.S.–Iran stalemate persists; U.S. crude inventories rose for the third week. WTI held near highs.

Analyst View: Gains remain mild, momentum lacking, likely to stay in consolidation.

Bias: Range trading

20260820 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4535 / 4551
  • Support: 4465 / 4450

20260820 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 67.80 / 68.44
  • Support: 65.67 / 65.17

Treasury buybacks lifted gold above $4,500, the highest since early June; silver +5.8% to $67.

Analyst View: Gold posted its biggest gain since February, breaking out of its range. Watch consolidation above $4,500, with key resistance near $4,550.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260820 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,640 / 53,804
  • Support: 53,211 / 53,084

Dow rebounded over 100 points on Wednesday after Treasury buyback expansion, ending a three‑day slide.

Analyst View: Tested 53,700 resistance before pulling back. Rebound remains mild while near lows.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260820 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,856 / 29,987
  • Support: 29,310 / 29,183

Tech stocks mostly rose on Wednesday as yields fell, but semiconductors and AI momentum stocks lagged. Nasdaq modestly rebounded.

Analyst View: Still in the weekly low range; watch support at 29,310/29,183.

Bias: Weak momentum

20260820 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 70,398 / 70,945
  • Support: 68,041 / 67,475

Bitcoin jumped on Wednesday, its best day since early February, after President Trump promoted crypto and urged Congress to pass key legislation. Falling long‑end yields also supported sentiment.

Analyst View: It hit its highest level since early June and briefly tested $70k. Breakout could attract further buying toward 70,398/70,945.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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