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Unresolved U.S.–Iran Rifts Keep Markets Cautious

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

As the U.S.–Iran framework ceasefire expired, Iran threatened to shift to a full offensive posture, while Washington said it did not rule out extending the truce. U.S. equities weakened Monday amid fears of worsening tensions in the Middle East. The dollar traded mixed against major currencies, while gold and oil extended gains.

Today’s focus: UK Unemployment Rate (Forecast 4.7%, Previous 4.9%). A lower‑than‑expected reading would support GBP. Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to improve further, reflecting institutional investor confidence in the outlook. U.S. July Industrial Production (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.3%) will test output resilience.

 

Global Market Review 18/08/2026

  • U.S. equities closed lower on Monday: Dow ‑0.5%, S&P 500 ‑0.5%, Nasdaq ‑0.32%.
  • U.S. Treasuries sold off, dragging indices. The dollar index recovered after hitting its lowest level since early June, as bets on a Fed rate hike cooled.
  • Gold +0.9% on weaker Fed expectations.
  • Oil rose as diplomatic prospects for ending the U.S.–Iran conflict dimmed, heightening supply concerns.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate JUN **
  • 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index AUG **
  • 20:30 US Housing Starts JUL **
  • 20:30 US Building Permits Prel JUL **
  • 21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production JUL **

August 19 (GMT+8)

  • 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
  • 14:00 GB CPI & PPI JUL ***
  • 15:10 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***
  • 17:00 EU CPI Final JUL **
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

 

Markets Analysis 18/08/2026

20260818 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1590 / 1.1602
  • Support: 1.1563 / 1.1551

EUR/USD hit two‑month highs on Monday, but inflation concerns from rising oil prices may cap upside.

Analyst View: Briefly broke 1.1610 but stalled at 1.1614. If unable to break 1.1600 again, momentum may fade, returning to prior ranges.

Bias: Weak rebound

20260818 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3591 / 1.3626
  • Support: 1.3483 / 1.3449

GBP/USD broke 1.3550 on Monday for the first time in three months, then gave back gains. Market awaits UK jobs today and inflation tomorrow.

Analyst View: Extended three‑month highs, but momentum toward 1.3600 may be capped ahead of data.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260818 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.78 / 160.01
  • Support: 159.34 / 159.05

Yen failed to rally as Japan’s GDP missed forecasts. USD pressured by weaker Fed-hike bets; the pair stayed in a narrow range.

Analyst View: Still consolidating near 159.50. Dips bought back, showing support at lows.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260818 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 85.03 / 86.90
  • Support: 82.07 / 80.58

Oil extended gains on Monday as Trump rejected extending the truce. Traders assess conflict risks.

Analyst View: After a two‑day rally to late‑July highs, it opened lower Tuesday. Likely to stay in the high range despite adjustment.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260818 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4450 / 4466
  • Support: 4381 / 4364

20260818 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 67.19 / 67.58
  • Support: 65.54 / 65.15

Gold extended its rebound as Fed-hike bets weakened—metals supported by Middle East tensions.

Analyst View: Gold consolidating at highs, targeting $4,450. Watch for resistance at the range top and inflation worries from oil.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260818 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,804 / 53,932
  • Support: 53,211 / 53,084

Dow fell ~260 points on Monday as the U.S.–Iran stalemate lifted inflation fears. 30‑year yields hit 19‑year highs.

Analyst View: At two‑week lows, bears may push toward 53,000 support.

Bias: Short‑term bearish

20260818 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30,204 / 30,550
  • Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Middle East tensions outweighed AI stock gains. Memory and optical chip stocks rose, but Nasdaq failed to extend the rebound.

Analyst View: Stalled near last week’s highs. Bulls are losing momentum and are likely to consolidate.

Bias: Weakening momentum

20260818 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,991 / 65,424
  • Support: 63,959 / 63,613

Bitcoin price rose nearly 2% to reclaim $64,000, supported by short-term buying momentum.

Analyst View: Biggest gain since mid‑July, breaking out of lows. Could target August highs above $65k, but bulls may pause after the surge.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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