(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysPresident Trump announced the reinstatement of a blockade on Iranian ports and proposed a 20% levy on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Escalating U.S.–Iran hostilities weighed on risk sentiment, sending U.S. equities lower, oil sharply higher, and gold under pressure. Today’s focus: U.S. June CPI and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony. CPI is expected to slow to 3.8% YoY (prior 4.2%). Warsh’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on inflation and the outlook for rate hikes, adding volatility to already geopolitically sensitive markets. |
Global Market Review 14/07/2026
- U.S. equities fell Monday: Dow ‑0.26%, S&P 500 ‑0.79%, Nasdaq ‑1.55%.
- Treasury yields surged, while the dollar edged higher.
- Gold fell nearly 3%, holding just above $4,000.
- Oil surged 9% amid renewed fears of supply disruption, reaching its highest level since mid‑June.
Key Events Today:
- 20:30 US CPI JUN ***
- 22:00 Fed Chair Warsh Testimony ***
July 15(GMT+8)
- 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 10:00 CN GDP Q2 ***
- 17:00 EU Industrial Production MAY **
- 20:30 US PPI JUN ***
- 21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
- 22:30 BoC Press Conference ***
- 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Markets Analysis 14/07/2026
- Resistance: 1.1417 / 1.1438
- Support: 1.1347 / 1.1325
EUR/USD broke below 1.1400 as risk aversion lifted the dollar. Investors are closely watching the upcoming US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony.
Analyst View: After two days of gains, the pair reversed and fell below the 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Short‑term bearish bias dominates, with potential to test below 1.1350.
Bias: Short‑term pressured
- Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461
- Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264
Sterling fell to three‑day lows near 1.3350, its largest drop since late June, as safe‑haven demand surged.
Analyst View: Breaking below the 10‑day MA signals accumulating downside pressure. A move toward 1.3300 would test the 20‑day MA. Focus on CPI and Warsh’s testimony.
Bias: Short‑term pressured
- Resistance: 162.83 / 163.11
- Support: 162.21 / 161.94
USD/JPY held above 162, pressured by widening U.S.–Japan yield differentials and Middle East risks.
Analyst View: Trading near 162.50. Whether it retests highs depends on geopolitical developments, CPI, and Warsh’s remarks.
Bias: High‑level consolidation
- Resistance: 82.45 / 83.72
- Support: 78.15 / 76.50
Oil surged 9% Monday on renewed supply fears after Trump reinstated the Iranian port blockade.
Analyst View: Prices tested $80 this morning, reaching their highest level since mid‑June. Breakout would open higher ranges, though momentum may pause after sharp gains.
Bias: Short‑term bullish
- Resistance: 4043 / 4073
- Support: 3943 / 3913
- Resistance: 58.52 / 59.43
- Support: 55.59 / 54.69
Gold fell nearly 3% on Monday, briefly breaking below $4,000. Silver also weakened.
Analyst View: Gold remains pressured at monthly lows. CPI and Warsh’s testimony are key drivers beyond geopolitics. Hawkish signals could deepen losses; a dovish tone may attract bargain buying below $4,000.
Bias: Low‑level consolidation
- Resistance: 52,836 / 53,074
- Support: 52,079 / 51,846
U.S. equities fell Monday as geopolitical tensions escalated. The Dow ended its two‑day rally, retreating from four‑day highs.
Analyst View: Breaking below the 10‑day MA, with potential to test the 20‑day MA near 52,100. CPI and Warsh’s testimony will be decisive.
Bias: Short‑term pressured
- Resistance: 29,600 / 29,774
- Support: 28,864 / 28,693
Nasdaq dropped to three‑day lows, weighed by semiconductor weakness (index ‑5%). Nvidia and Tesla fell over 3%, Meta and Google down over 1%.
Analyst View: Nasdaq broke below key MAs, with last week’s lows as the next target. CPI and Warsh’s testimony are critical intraday drivers.
Bias: Short‑term pressured
- Resistance: 64,360 / 65,509
- Support: 61,626 / 60,710
Bitcoin dipped on Monday, remaining under pressure as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran kept markets largely averse towards speculative, non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies.
Analyst View: BTC/USD broke below the 10‑day MA but held the 20‑day MA. Consolidating within MA ranges; CPI and Warsh’s remarks may trigger a breakout.
Bias: Consolidation within moving averages
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