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Markets shrug off Middle East tensions; gold rebounds on dip buying

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted Thursday, putting further strain on the three‑week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, markets judged escalation risks as temporarily limited. President Trump said Iran had contacted Washington seeking a deal after fresh U.S. strikes. Markets focused on the limited geopolitical impact: U.S. tech stocks rebounded while gold recovered.

Today’s focus: Economic data is relatively light. Watch Germany’s June CPI final (YoY expected at 2.3%) and Canada’s employment data (unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.6%) for the main trading cues.t 6.6%).

 

Global Market Review 10/07/2026

U.S. equities closed higher Thursday, led by the tech sector. Micron lifted chip stocks, offsetting Middle East concerns and helping the Dow rise 0.26%, the S&P 500 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%.

The dollar fell for a second day, while gold rose over 1% after hitting one-week lows, supported by dip buying. U.S. crude oil futures fell nearly 4% as traders awaited further developments in U.S.–Iran tensions.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final JUN **
  • 16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **
  • 20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUN **

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

  • Monday: OPEC Monthly Report
  • Tuesday: US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, EU Industrial Production, US PPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
  • Thursday: Fed Beige Book, GB GDP, GB Industrial & Manufacturing Production, US Retail Sales & Initial Jobless Claims, US Pending Home Sales
  • Friday: EU CPI, US Housing Starts & Building Permits, US Manufacturing & Industrial Production, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

 

Markets Analysis 10/07/2026

20260710 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1473 / 1.1490
  • Support: 1.1417 / 1.1399

EUR/USD extended gains to 1.1440 in early Asia Friday, supported by dollar weakness. Meanwhile, ECB minutes showed stubborn inflation.

Analyst View: After two days of gains, the pair is testing 20-day MA resistance. A breakout could target last week’s high at 1.1473, while failure may keep the pair range-bound. 1.1473.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260710 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3498
  • Support: 1.3377 / 1.3339

Sterling broke above 1.3400 on Thursday, driven by the UK leadership transition and rising expectations for further BoE hikes.

Analyst View: Holding near highs since June 17. Watch resistance at 1.3460–1.3500.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260710 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 162.45 / 162.71
  • Support: 161.60 / 161.34

USD/JPY retreated from 40‑year highs Thursday as dollar weakness and intervention fears weighed.

Analyst View: Extended pullback broke below 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Failure to hold could pressure the pair back into last week’s low range.

Bias: Short‑term correction

20260710 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 73.97 / 75.06
  • Support: 69.43 / 68.38

Oil fell after two days of strong gains as inflation and demand concerns resurfaced. Traders assessed the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Analyst View: Consolidating between 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Without fresh geopolitical headlines, expect range‑bound trade.

Bias: Range consolidation

20260710 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4173 / 4203
  • Support: 4073 / 4042

20260710 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 61.46 / 62.38
  • Support: 58.52 / 57.61

Gold rebounded above $4,100 Thursday, supported by bargain buying after recent declines. Silver also recovered.

Analyst View: Testing 20‑day MA resistance. A breakout could target $4,200; failure may cap prices below $4,100.

Bias: Weak rebound

20260710 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52,830 / 53,069
  • Support: 52,069 / 51,834

Despite the U.S.–Iran conflict, markets treated the escalation as contained. As a result, U.S. equities rebounded, with the Dow ending its losing streak.

Analyst View: Reclaimed above the 10‑day MA. Sustained strength could retest record highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260710 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,896 / 30,087
  • Support: 29,312 / 29,071

Semiconductor stocks rebounded strongly Thursday, helping the Nasdaq rise over 1%. Large tech names mostly closed higher.

Analyst View: Nasdaq reclaimed above 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Short‑term signals improved, but watch trendline resistance from last week’s highs.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260710 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,663 / 65,467
  • Support: 62,018 / 61,201

Bitcoin rose on Thursday, supported by improved risk sentiment and falling oil prices after Trump said Iran had contacted Washington to seek a deal.

Analyst View: BTC/USD ended its two‑day decline, breaking above the 10‑day MA after holding the 20‑day MA. Next test is last week’s high near $64,700.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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