Client Portal
Start trading

U.S.–Iran Conflict Rekindles Concerns, Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Tone?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

According to Reuters, three oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. military to launch new airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday and revoke Iran’s oil export waivers. The latest developments have shaken confidence in the fragile ceasefire agreement.

Today’s focus: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25 bps to 2.5%, its first hike in more than three years, while signaling the possibility of further increases. Early Thursday (GMT+8), attention turns to the Fed’s June meeting minutes for guidance on monetary policy outlook and whether they reinforce a hawkish stance.

 

Global Market Review 08/07/2026

U.S. equities fell Tuesday, led by weakness in semiconductor stocks. Micron and other chipmakers dropped, deepening doubts about the sustainability of Wall Street’s AI‑driven rally. The Dow fell 0.25%, S&P 500 lost 0.45%, and Nasdaq dropped 1.16%.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, while the dollar firmed slightly after several days of declines, supported by Middle East tensions. Gold fell 1.4% as investors focused on escalating hostilities in the region. Oil surged more than 5% on renewed supply concerns.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 11:00 RBNZ Press Conference ***
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

July 9（GMT+8）

  • 02:00 FOMC Minutes ***
  • 09:30 CN CPI & PPI JUN **
  • 19:30 ECB Minutes ***
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUN **

 

Markets Analysis 08/07/2026

20260708 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1438 / 1.1456
  • Support: 1.1382 / 1.1364

EUR/USD weakened Tuesday, retreating to 1.1410 as Middle East tensions lifted dollar demand.

Analyst View: Testing below the 10‑day MA this morning; a close lower would confirm short‑term correction toward sub‑1.1400 levels. Watch 1.1382/1.1364 support and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461
  • Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264

Sterling ended its eight‑day rally Tuesday, slipping below 1.3370 after briefly testing 1.3400.

Analyst View: Retreat from mid‑June highs; 10‑ and 20‑day MAs near 1.3300 act as key support. Focus on U.S.–Iran tensions and Fed minutes.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 162.84 / 163.11
  • Support: 161.94 / 161.66

USD/JPY held near 162.00 Tuesday, with yen still at 40‑year lows. Traders remain alert to possible Japanese intervention.

Analyst View: Dollar demand lifted the pair higher this morning, targeting last week’s highs. Momentum remains cautious at elevated levels.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260708 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 73.92 / 75.23
  • Support: 69.68 / 68.34

Oil surged Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and the revocation of oil waivers reignited concerns over the ceasefire.

Analyst View: Prices broke above the 10‑day MA, improving short‑term signals. Without fresh escalation, upside momentum may be capped near the 20‑day MA.

Bias: Short‑term rebound

  • Resistance: 4148 / 4180
  • Support: 4049 / 4008

  • Resistance: 61.35 / 62.72
  • Support: 58.30 / 56.91

Gold fell for a second day Tuesday, pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar. Silver dropped below $60.

Analyst View: Gold is under pressure from geopolitics and technicals, testing support near $4,080. Less hawkish Fed minutes could help stabilize prices.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 53,410 / 53,612
  • Support: 52,536 / 52,337

U.S. equities fell Tuesday as oil‑driven inflation fears weighed. The Dow retreated after briefly hitting new highs, ending its five‑day rally.

Analyst View: Back below 53,000 but still elevated. Fed minutes will be key; a less hawkish tone could cushion downside.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

  • Resistance: 29,597 / 29,770
  • Support: 29,082 / 28,866

Semiconductor and storage stocks slumped Tuesday; SpaceX fell over 6%, Tesla dropped 4%, while Meta gained 2.55%.

Analyst View: Nasdaq broke below key moving averages, approaching late‑June lows. Watch support near 28,890 and Fed minutes guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260708 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,407 / 65,564
  • Support: 62,578 / 61,655

Cryptos fell Tuesday after U.S. strikes on Iran and oil waiver revocation. ETF outflows add pressure to cryptocurrencies.

Analyst View: BTC/USD ended its rally, extending losses this morning. Key support lies at the 10‑ and 20‑day MA cluster around $61,800–62,000.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

Recent News
Free Demo Account
✅ Practice risk-free
✅ Master the markets
Trade live when you’re ready!
Open Live Account
Open Demo Account
Popular posts
Learn More
With ATFX
Related Post
ATFX_logo

© ATFX.COM. All rights reserved.

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555).Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom. Company No.09827091

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please read the full risk disclosure on pages 42-45 of our Terms of Business.

The commercialisation of services and the acquisition of clients can only be carried out in Spain by an authorised entity or through a tied agent.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States, Belgium or any particular country outside the UK and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a group of entities including:

AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom with registration number 760555. The Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom. (Professional clients only)

ATFX Global Markets (CY) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license no. 285/15. The Registered Office: 159 Leontiou A’ Street, Maryvonne Building Office 204, 3022, Limassol, Cyprus.

AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission with registration number 157819 and license number C118023331. The Registered Office: G08, Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius.

ATFX MENA Financial Services LLC is regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the United Arab Emirates with Category 5 license number 20200000078.

EMERGING MARKETS is regulated by the Jordan Securities Commission authority as an Introducing Broker license number 643 and is the regulated entity in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

ATFX is a trademark of AT Global Markets INTL LTD a company registered in Mauritius under FSC and all services in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is offered through its Introducing Broker.

AT Global Markets LLC is a Limited Liability Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with company number 333 LLC 2020. The Registered Office: Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

ATFX (Cambodia) Company Limited in Cambodia is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia with the license number 040.

ATFX

ATFX UK (AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd.) focuses on developing institutional business and professional investors and does not accept retail clients under its UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) license.

For professional client applications, please contact [email protected].

ATFX

Important Notice

We would like to inform you that, in order to ensure full compliance with the regulations of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), the opening of new accounts for individuals residing or domiciled in the Federative Republic of Brazil is currently unavailable.

This measure is necessary to complete the final stages of the technological and operational integration process with our local intermediary partner, Levycam CCTVM Ltda. (CNPJ 50.579.044/0001-96), in accordance with the guidelines set forth in CVM Guidance Opinion No. 33/2005.

As a result, it is not possible to proceed with your account opening request at this time. Once the regulatory and operational integration process is completed, the account opening flow will be enabled, and interested parties will be duly informed.

ATFX is not authorized by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) to offer intermediation or distribution services for securities issued abroad to investors residing in the Federative Republic of Brazil. Currently, ATFX does not operate nor actively offer intermediation services in Brazil. By accessing this website, investors declare that they are aware of the applicable legal restrictions and agree that they are operating outside the jurisdiction of the CVM. Investments abroad are not covered by the protection mechanisms existing in Brazil, such as the MRP and the FGC. With the objective of enabling future regularized operations, ATFX has entered into a contract for the provision of foreign intermediation services with the Brazilian brokerage firm Levycam CCTVM (CNPJ 50.579.044/0001-96), as provided for in CVM Guidance Opinion No. 33/2005. However, activities related to local intermediation are still in the pre-operational phase (technological and regulatory integration process). If you have any questions regarding the regulation of your trading accounts, please contact us.

I understand
ATFX

🌍 Welcome to ATFX!

To provide you with the best trading experience in Iraq, please visit our localized website:

There, you’ll find all products, services, and contact information tailored specifically for you. Thank you for choosing ATFX!

Go to ATFX (AR)
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website https://www.atfx.com/en-ae/ are not suitable
in your country. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or
constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments.
Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销，要约，买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://www.atfx.com/en/ 。

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Please note, you may be accessing this page from outside Australia. Products and Services on https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ may not be suitable in your country. The information provided should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, or distribution for any investments.

Proceed to Stay
Choose Your Region at ATFX.com

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ are not suitable in your country. The information provided should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, or distribution for any investments.

Choose another region to see content specific to your location.

Choose Your Region at ATFX.com
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://www.atfxconnect.com/