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Volatility Returns as Focus Shifts to U.S. Services PMI

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Key catalysts included last Friday’s U.S. holiday, which kept trading volumes muted, and cooling expectations for Fed rate hikes. Progress in U.S.–Iran talks in Qatar was also noted, though markets remain cautious.

Today’s key catalysts are the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, Eurozone PPI as a gauge of manufacturing deflation pressures, and tonight’s U.S. ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI, expected at 54.1 versus 54.5 previously.

 

Global Market Review 06/07/2026

U.S. markets closed Friday; the dollar retreated from a 13‑month high, posting its largest weekly drop in 12 weeks. Key moves included EUR/USD at 1.1440 (+0.5% weekly), GBP/USD at 1.3352 (+1.1% weekly), gold up 1.3% with a weekly rise of over 2%, and WTI down 2.56% for the week.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MAY **
  • 16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence JULY **
  • 17:00 EU Retail Sales MAY **
  • 17:00 EU PPI MAY ***
  • 21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **
  • 22:00 US ISM Services PMI JUN ***

46210

  • 14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MAY **
  • 20:30 US Balance of Trade MAY **

 

Markets Analysis 06/07/2026

20260706 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1474 / 1.1509
  • Support: 1.1396 / 1.1360

With U.S. markets closed Friday, EUR/USD saw little overall change, holding near 1.1430 while posting a second straight daily gain.

Analyst View: EUR/USD stayed near 1.1430 with a second daily gain. Price is between the 10- and 20-day MAs; today’s data could prompt a breakout.

Bias: Range trading

20260706 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461
  • Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264

With the dollar weakening, GBP/USD held firm near 1.3350 on Friday, maintaining its highest level since June 17 and positioning to test nearby resistance if momentum improves.

Analyst View: Sterling stayed firm near 1.3350, its highest since June 17. Repeated resistance at 1.3380 caps upside; failure to break may weaken momentum.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260706 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 162.07 / 162.46
  • Support: 161.20 / 160.81

USD/JPY partially rebounded on Friday after the sharp drop the previous day, recovering from the June 17 low to close higher, with the rally extending into this morning and leaving the pair back in a rebound test.

Analyst View: USD/JPY rebounded Friday, reclaiming the 20-day MA. Testing the 10-day MA today could signal a breakout or continued range.

Bias: Range trading

20260706 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 69.78 / 70.42
  • Support: 67.69 / 67.05

Oil rebounded modestly Friday from multi‑month lows. OPEC+ announced a further output target increase of 188,000 bpd from August.

Analyst View: Oil prices staged a mild rebound from recent lows, but remain capped by the 10‑day MA near $70.40.

Bias: Low‑range trading

20260706 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4268 / 4320
  • Support: 4111 / 4047

  • Resistance: 65.43 / 67.31
  • Support: 59.32 / 57.40

Spot gold rose on Friday as the dollar weakened, briefly approaching $4,200 before breaking through this morning to its highest level since June 22.

Analyst View: Gold rallied above the 20-day MA to its highest since June 22, targeting $4268/4320 resistance. U.S. PMI data is key.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260706 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,151 / 53,410
  • Support: 52,536 / 52,337

After the U.S. holiday, markets return as payrolls data eased rate-hike fears. The Dow’s ability to hold record highs is in focus.

Analyst View: The Dow remains in an uptrend channel, poised to test 53,000 and higher resistance at 53,151/53,410. U.S. PMI data will determine whether record highs extend.

Bias: Bullish at highs

20260706 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29,975 / 30,187
  • Support: 29,291 / 29,077

Nasdaq lagged in the latter part of last week, with the daily chart showing a consolidation pattern. Today’s key catalyst is whether it can rebound in line with broader market sentiment.

Analyst View: Nasdaq lagged late last week, consolidating after declines. Tonight’s U.S. PMI will be key; resistance lies at the 29,600–29,700 MA cluster.

Bias: Consolidation

20260706 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65,564 / 66,473
  • Support: 61,648 / 60,724

Bitcoin gained in early Asian trade, following last week’s cooler-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which eased fears about Fed rate hikes.

Analyst View: Bitcoin extended its rally last week. Early Asian trading saw a mild pullback, with focus on a move toward late-June highs.

Bias: Moderately bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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