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Rate-Hike Outlook Firms on Strong U.S. Data; Tech Stocks Fall

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, while May PCE inflation rose above 4% year-on-year. Markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in July, with the earliest possible hike in September.

  • Today: June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading. Confidence remains weak amid inflation and rate hikes; markets expect a rebound.

 

Global Market Review 26/06/2026

U.S. stocks mixed: Dow +0.14%, S&P 500 -0.01%, Nasdaq -0.46%. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened. Gold rose as Fed hike odds fell. Oil +2% after Oman vessel incident.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUN ***

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week（GMT+8）

  • Monday: EU Economic Sentiment, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Tuesday: ECB President Lagarde Speech, CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, GB GDP, GERMANY CPI & Unemployment Rate, CA GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI, EU CPI, US ADP Employment Change & ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
  • Thursday: EU Unemployment Rate, US Non-Farm Payrolls & Initial Jobless Claims, US Factory Orders
  • Friday: US Holiday, AU/JP/EU/GB Services & Composite PMI

 

Markets Analysis 26/06/2026

20260626 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1408 / 1.1422
  • Support: 1.1328 / 1.1314

EUR/USD stabilized near a 13‑month low after U.S. inflation data came in as expected. A mild rebound late in the session halted the prior three‑day decline.

Analyst View: The pair is near its lows, and with limited catalysts, EUR/USD may remain range-bound, potentially testing above 1.1400.

Bias: Low‑range consolidation

20260626 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3246 / 1.3269
  • Support: 1.3150 / 1.3132

Despite a strong U.S. core PCE, the dollar weakened, allowing GBP/USD to rebound and briefly rise above 1.3200, extending gains in early Asian trading.

Analyst View: The rebound has held the lower boundary of the downtrend channel. A further rise needs a break above the 10-day moving average around 1.3260.

Bias: Low‑range consolidation

20260626 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 162.06 / 162.18
  • Support: 161.65 / 161.49

USD/JPY continues to fluctuate near a nearly 40‑year high. The widening U.S.–Japan yield differential keeps the yen under pressure. The pair edged higher yesterday but slowed as the dollar retreated.

Analyst View: USD/JPY remains in high-level consolidation. With momentum slowing, intraday position adjustments may follow. Watch for short-term pullbacks if profit-taking emerges.

Bias: Cautiously bullish

20260626 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 73.68 / 74.29
  • Support: 69.66 / 69.04

Crude oil rebounded after another vessel incident near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI briefly rose above $73, but increased tanker traffic through the strait continues to cap the upside amid rising supply.

Analyst View: After ending a three-day decline, crude may consolidate within the lower range. Any rebound is likely to stay moderate, with the 10-day moving average above $75 acting as resistance.

Bias: Low‑range consolidation

20260626 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4024 / 4078
  • Support: 3983 / 3939

20260626 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 60.33 / 61.49
  • Support: 55.30 / 54.12

Despite an elevated U.S. core PCE, gold rebounded yesterday as the dollar weakened, recovering from its lowest level since November 2025 and reclaiming the $4,000 mark.

Analyst View: Gold’s rebound rests on two days of buying around $3,960. If this level holds, it may rise toward $4,100.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260626 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52537 / 52744
  • Support: 51663 / 51404

The Dow fluctuated after U.S. data and briefly reached a new intraday record. While PCE and GDP surpassed expectations, they didn’t raise the chances of an immediate Fed rate hike.

Analyst View: Dow futures surged to 52,660 after a strong open, setting a new intraday high for the first time in nearly a week, but it failed to hold. This level remains key resistance.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

20260626 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30084 / 30381
  • Support: 28801 / 28493

Tech weakness and persistent valuation concerns continued to pressure Nasdaq, though the pace of decline has moderated.

Analyst View: The index briefly approached the 10- and 20-day moving averages near 29,800 before retreating, with modest rebound momentum. Monitor trading within the moving-average band and this week’s lows.

Bias: Range‑bound consolidation

20260626 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 60306/61252
  • Support: 58155/57177

Bitcoin is trading around $59,000, its lowest level since 2024, as expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and potential rate hikes weigh on crypto sentiment.

Analyst View: BTC/USD fell below $60,000 following three declines but has seen some buying interest recently. The focus is on whether downside momentum can ease.

Bias: Under pressure at lower levels

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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