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Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risk; Eyes on Global PMIs

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

On Thursday, President Trump vowed “major military punishment” against Iran and its Houthi allies. Safe‑haven sentiment rose further, oil prices closed sharply higher, while U.S. equities fell under pressure from technology stocks.

Today’s PMI releases across major economies will provide preliminary signals of July’s economic activity. U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to accelerate modestly within expansion territory, but energy price uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz blockade poses new challenges to U.S. and European resilience.

 

Global Market Review 24/07/2026

U.S. equities closed lower Thursday on concerns over tech spending and escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. Dow ‑0.97%, S&P 500 ‑1.21%, Nasdaq ‑2.15%.

Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened. Gold fell 2%, retreating from two‑week highs, as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher and stoked inflation fears.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, intensifying global supply disruption risks. Brent crude jumped over 6%, breaking above $100/bbl for the first time since May; WTI crude closed +6.8%.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales JUN **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **
  • 20:00 US Building Permits Final JUN **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL ***
  • 22:00 US New Home Sales JUN **

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

  • Monday: GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUL, US Durable Goods Orders & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Tuesday: RBA Gov Bullock Speech, US CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI
  • Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, EU GDP, BoE Interest Rate Decision, GERMANY CPI, US GDP & Core PCE Price Index, US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, JP Unemployment Rate JUN, AU PPI, CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, EU CPI, CA GDP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

 

Markets Analysis 24/07/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1408 / 1.1422
  • Support: 1.1362 / 1.1348

ECB kept rates unchanged Thursday but left room for a September hike. Dollar rebound dominated sentiment, pushing EUR/USD to early‑July lows.

Analyst View: Attempting a rebound but short‑term weak. Watch PMI data; technically still vulnerable toward 1.1350 support.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 1.3399 / 1.3460
  • Support: 1.3300 / 1.3250

Sterling fell for a sixth straight day Thursday, trading near 1.3300 as Middle East tensions escalated. Focus today on PMI and retail sales.

Analyst View: Broke below 20‑day MA, hitting early‑July lows. Holding 1.3300 is key; failure could extend decline toward late‑June lows.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 164.29 / 164.56
  • Support: 163.39 / 163.11

USD/JPY climbed to near 40‑year highs as U.S. yields rose and Fed hike expectations strengthened. Japan June CPI rose 1.7% YoY, core CPI in line with forecasts.

Analyst View: Tested highs near 164 Thursday. Watch for resistance at elevated levels and potential position adjustments before the weekend.

Bias: High‑level cautious

  • Resistance: 94.97 / 97.27
  • Support: 89.54 / 87.20

Iran blocked two key global oil supply routes, while U.S. threats escalated. WTI broke above $90 Thursday.

Analyst View: Oil hit highs since June 8. Next technical resistance near $95 may cap momentum unless geopolitical headlines drive further breakout.

Bias: Mildly bullish

  • Resistance: 4081 / 4110
  • Support: 4017 / 3988

  • Resistance: 59.15 / 59.84
  • Support: 56.16 / 55.44

Gold retreated from two‑week highs Thursday, breaking below $4,100 as Fed hike expectations and dollar strength weighed. Silver plunged over 3%.

Analyst View: Gold ended four‑day rally, closing within MA ranges. Watch support near $4,020; failure could trigger deeper correction.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 52,068 / 52,304
  • Support: 51,306 / 51,074

Equities fell Thursday on capex concerns and geopolitical risks. Fed hike expectations added pressure.

Analyst View: Dow opened sharply lower, hitting late‑June lows. Bears may target 51,000; watch U.S. data for guidance.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 28,857 / 28,994
  • Support: 28,225 / 28,090

Tech earnings reignited concerns over AI spending. Tesla plunged 14.52% on weak margins and EPS; Google fell 7.13% after raising capex guidance.

Analyst View: Nasdaq fell over 2%, closing near last week’s lows. Prior support may hold temporarily, but rebound momentum looks weak.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

  • Resistance: 66,485 / 67,426
  • Support: 64,416 / 63,507

Bitcoin fell 1.5% Thursday, trading below $66k. The decline followed stalled progress on the U.S. Senate’s CLARITY Act and surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions and Trump’s remarks.

Analyst View: BTC/USD fell for a second day, testing MA support. Holding $64,200 could allow a short‑term rebound; failure risks a retest of weekly lows.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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