(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysUS-Iran Peace Talks Progressing Amid Hurdles: Reports indicate that the US and Iran are close to finalising a draft for a peace agreement, with US Secretary of State Rubio noting “some positive signs” in the negotiations. However, sources reveal that both nations remain firm on their respective stances regarding Tehran’s uranium stockpiles and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s Market Focus: Investors continue to assess the latest developments regarding the potential Middle East peace deal. Key economic indicators to watch include the UK April Retail Sales MoM, forecasted at -0.6% (prior 0.7%), which reflects the impact of rising prices on consumer spending. Additionally, the final US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May is expected to hold steady at 48.2; markets will scrutinise any significant shifts in consumer sentiment regarding the economy, inflation, and the labour market. Furthermore, the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair, Warsh, is scheduled to be sworn in today. Traders will be highly attuned to his potential first official address for clues on the future trajectory of monetary policy. |
Global Market Review 22/05/2026
US initial jobless claims fell last week, underscoring the labour market’s continued resilience. Boosted by optimism over the US-Iran negotiations, Wall Street closed slightly higher on Thursday after a volatile session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55% to notch a new record high, the S&P 500 edged up 0.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.09%. US Treasury yields slid while the US Dollar Index (DXY) finished flat as traders weighed the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough to end the Middle East conflict.
Gold prices stabilised to end nearly flat on Thursday after slumping 1% intraday, finding support from the retracement in the greenback and Treasury yields. Meanwhile, crude oil prices finished more than 1% lower after a highly volatile session, hitting a nearly two-week low amid US-Iran diplomatic progress. Sources added that OPEC+ may consider a modest output hike for July.
Key Events Today:
- 14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence JUN **
- 14:00 GB Retail Sales APR ***
- 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate MAY **
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final MAY ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: U.S. , Germany, France, Hong Kong Holiday
- Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- Wednesday: AU CPI, US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, BoJ Gov Ueda Speech
- Thursday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, EU Economic Sentiment, US GDP & Core PCE Price Index & Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, JP Unemployment Rate, GERMANY Unemployment Rate & CPI, CA GDP
Markets Analysis 22/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1655/1.1676
- Support: 1.1584/1.1567
Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs both came in lower than expected. However, progress in the US-Iran negotiations provided some support for the Euro, allowing the currency pair to recover most of its losses after plunging to its lowest level since April 7 earlier in the day.
Analyst View: Yesterday, the exchange rate tested an intraday low of 1.1576 before finding support. A consecutive string of lower lows highlights short-term weakness; if the news front fails to provide bullish catalysts, the pair could test below the 1.1600 psychological handle once again.
Bias: Under pressure at lower bounds
- Resistance:1.3486/1.3519
- Support: 1.3381/1.3349
The UK’s latest Services PMI unexpectedly slipped into contractionary territory. However, comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials firmly backed policy tightening, and coupled with optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement, the GBP/USD pair found late-session support to finish only modestly lower. Today, the market’s focus remains squarely on UK retail sales data.
Analyst View: The Pound cable experienced volatile intraday trading yesterday before finishing nearly flat, remaining capped below resistance at the 10-day moving average. As a result, short-term momentum remains tilted to the downside, and the pair could retest levels below 1.3400.
Bias: Trading with a weak bias
- Resistance: 159.39/159.74
- Support:158.62/158.28
Japan’s April CPI, released this morning, rose 1.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI reading came in lower than expected, hitting a four-year low. The Yen edged down following the data, allowing USD/JPY to attract some buying pressure during Friday’s Asian trading session.
Analyst View: USD/JPY pair briefly touched an intraday high of 159.35, hitting its highest level since late April, but failed to sustain those gains. This morning, the pair is testing above the 159.00 handle once again; watch for bulls to continue their mild upward testing.
Bias: Mildly bullish
- Resistance: 101.30/103.29
- Support: 94.98/93.03
WTI oil prices fell by more than 1% overnight as investors grew optimistic about potential progress in Middle East peace talks. However, prices rebounded this morning as the US and Iran remain at loggerheads over Tehran’s uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analyst View: Crude oil’s rebound has stalled in the face of developments surrounding the peace agreement. Yesterday, prices attempted to break above key moving average resistances on the daily chart but failed to hold, pulling back below the $98 level. If the downward channel continues to expand this week, watch for support below $95.
Bias: Weak bias
- Resistance: 4572/4605
- Support: 4500/4468
- Resistance: 77.92/80.10
- Support: 73.58/70.84
Optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement eased inflation fears and dragged US Treasury yields lower. After finishing nearly flat overnight, gold prices remained in a wait-and-see mode during Friday’s early session, with the market continuing to focus on the US-Iran situation and Warsh’s upcoming inauguration as Fed Chair.
Analyst View: Gold closed virtually flat yesterday, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears as the market awaits further fundamental guidance. Prices remain confined within this week’s trading range, and whether the metal can hold above the $4,500 level will be pivotal for the short-term battle between buyers and sellers.
Bias: Range-bound
- Resistance:50437/50582
- Support: 50065/49953
Wall Street closed higher on Thursday as easing oil prices and improving expectations for US-Iran peace talks combined to lift market sentiment. The three major indices staged an intraday turnaround from earlier lows to finish marginally higher, with the Dow leading the gains. Markets remain highly attentive to whether a final draft of the US-Iran peace agreement is close to being reached.
Analyst View: The Dow set a new closing high yesterday. It needs a continuation of positive news to extend its gains, and firmly establishing a foothold above the 50,000 will help attract further buying interest.
Bias: Bullish at highs
- Resistance: 29886/30285
- Support: 29006/28619
U.S. stocks closed slightly higher in volatile trading on Thursday. Although Nvidia’s strong earnings were offset by stretched valuations, causing its shares to fall post-earnings, retreating U.S. Treasury yields still boosted the Nasdaq.
Analyst View: The Nasdaq closed at its weekly high overnight. Technically, holding above the 10-day moving average provides momentum for a continued rebound. Therefore, the focus is on whether it can test last week’s record high. Currently, watch the resistance levels at 29,886 / 30,285.
Bias: Bullish at highs
- Resistance: 77938/78873
- Support: 76084/74912
Bitcoin advances for the second consecutive day and hovers around $78,000, backed by hopes that US-Iran negotiations are in the final stages.
Analyst View: BTC/USD rose moderately in late trading yesterday. Since the price remains below the 10-day moving average, which caps the rebound, trading is expected to remain within this week’s main lower range for now. The $76,000 level below still warrants attention as support.
Bias: Hovering in the lower range
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