Market Highlight 29/12/2025
Global markets closed last week with elevated volatility, as substantial gains in precious metals and ongoing geopolitical developments shaped sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher to 98.07, while U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield at 4.137% and the 2-year yield slipping below 3.5%, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. U.S. equities ended marginally lower, while Asian markets showed relative resilience, led by Chinese stocks.
Commodities dominated the session. Precious metals surged to record highs, with spot gold briefly approaching $4,550, alongside sharp gains in silver and platinum, prompting the CME to raise margin requirements. In contrast, oil prices fell more than 2% on optimism over potential Russia–Ukraine talks and concerns over future supply oversupply. Overall, markets remain balanced between strong safe-haven demand and a cautious risk tone ahead of key U.S. data and Fed guidance.
Key Outlook 29/12/2025
Markets will closely watch U.S. November Pending Home Sales for signals on housing demand amid shifting rate expectations. Later, the December Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will offer insight into regional manufacturing momentum. Any downside surprise could reinforce easing expectations, while stronger data may lend short-term support to the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 23:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM NOV **
- 23:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index DEC **
Tomorrow:
- 22:00 US House Price Index MoM OCT **
Markets Analysis 29/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1820 / 1.1839
- Support: 1.1738 / 1.1719
EUR/USD remains supported by a softer dollar amid expectations of a Fed cut in 2026. Technically, price stays within an ascending channel, holding above 1.1719–1.1738 support while facing resistance at 1.1820–1.1839, keeping near-term action range-bound with a mild bullish bias.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3556 / 1.3627
- Support: 1.3410 / 1.3338
Sterling continues to grind higher alongside USD weakness, though upside momentum is showing signs of hesitation. Price action remains constructive within an ascending channel, with consolidation around 1.3500, while pullbacks toward 1.3410 would likely be viewed as corrective rather than trend-breaking.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.94 / 157.35
- Support: 155.69 / 155.17
USD/JPY remains choppy as repeated intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials tempers upside follow-through. Technically, price continues to oscillate within a rising range, but rejection near the 157 area suggests near-term consolidation rather than a clean breakout.
US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)
- Resistance: 57.95 / 58.42
- Support: 56.00/ 55.55
Oil prices remains headline-driven as Russia–Ukraine talks underpin downside risks while oversupply concerns cap rebounds. Technically, the rebound stalled near the 57.95–58.42 resistance zone, suggesting range trading rather than a trend reversal at this stage.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4,587 / 4,615
- Support: 4,455 / 4,426
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 85.92 / 87.94
- Support: 77.52 /75.52
Gold stays firm near record levels, underpinned by Fed cut expectations, a softer dollar and geopolitical tensions. From a technical view, dips found demand around $4,426–$4,455, while upside momentum now faces the $4,587–$4,615 resistance zone, with thin liquidity amplifying price swings.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49,066 / 49,469
- Support: 48,431 / 48,033
The Dow Futures remain close to record highs amid thin holiday liquidity, underpinned by expectations of Fed easing. Technically, the index continues to consolidate above 48,033–48,431, while upside attempts are being tested near the 49,066–49,469 resistance zone, suggesting consolidation rather than a decisive breakout for now.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25,835 / 25,974
- Support: 25,378 / 25,237
The NAS100 remains resilient, supported by ongoing strength in AI-related names. Technically, the index rebounded from the 25,237–25,378 support zone and is edging toward the 25,835–25,974 resistance area, where upside momentum may pause and shift into consolidation rather than a sharp reversal.
BTC
- Resistance: 89,545/90,743
- Support: 86,826/85,595
Bitcoin needs a roughly 6.24% rally to finish 2025 in positive territory, or it risks closing the first post-halving year in the red. Technically, BTC remains capped by the 89,545–90,743 resistance zone, while 85,595–86,826 acts as near-term support, keeping price action range-bound amid fading Fed easing expectations.
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