Market Highlight 23/12/2025
Risk-off sentiment intensified across global markets on Monday, weighing on the US dollar. The US Dollar Index briefly slipped to 98.19 and closed down 0.47%, while US Treasury yields also moved lower. Japan’s Finance Minister reiterated strong warnings on potential FX intervention, triggering a pullback in USD/JPY below the 157 level and adding further pressure on the dollar.
Safe-haven demand lifted precious metals sharply, with spot gold surging over 2% to a fresh record above USD 4,440, closing at USD 4,443.69, while silver rose nearly 3% to a new all-time high. Oil prices also rebounded more than 2% as concerns over potential supply disruptions from Russia and Venezuela resurfaced.
Equity markets remained broadly supported. US stocks extended gains led by resilient technology shares, while European equities edged lower. In Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong and mainland China equities moved higher, driven by strength in gold, semiconductor, and optical communication stocks, keeping overall risk sentiment relatively stable.
Key Outlook 23/12/2025
Markets focus on the revised US Q3 GDP and PCE tonight, with a cut to 3.2% likely to reinforce cooling growth expectations and pressure the US dollar and equities. Any improvement in US confidence data may offset downside risks, while Canada’s October GDP rebound is expected to offer limited support for the Canadian dollar amid potential data-driven volatility.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 21:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q3 ***
- 21:30 US Durable Goods Orders OCT **
- 21:30 CA GDP MoM OCT **
- 22:15 US Industrial Production MoM Nov **
- 23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence DEC **
- 23:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index DEC **
Tomorrow:
Germany, United Kingdom, New Zealand, United States, Australia Holiday
- 05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes ***
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
Market Analysis 23/12/2025
EUR/USD
- Resistance: 1.1777 / 1.1796
- Support: 1.1719 / 1.1695
EUR/USD remains supported by broad USD weakness driven by 2026 Fed cut expectations. Price rebounded from the 1.1695–1.1719 support zone and continues to trade within an ascending channel. Upside momentum may slow near the 1.1777–1.1796 resistance band, keeping the pair range-bound with a mild bullish bias.
GBP/USD
- Resistance: 1.3485 / 1.3556
- Support: 1.3412 / 1.3340
GBP/USD is supported by ongoing USD softness, with price action largely dollar-driven amid limited UK catalysts. The pair rebounded from the 1.3340–1.3412 support zone and is approaching key resistance at 1.3485–1.3556. Near-term upside faces selling pressure, but the broader structure remains constructive.
USD/JPY
- Resistance: 157.35 / 157.88
- Support: 156.52 / 156.11
USD/JPY pulled back after strong verbal intervention warnings from Japanese officials triggered yen short-covering. Price was rejected near the 157.35–157.88 resistance zone and is now testing support at 156.11–156.52. While the broader uptrend remains intact, short-term volatility has increased.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 58.39 / 59.19
- Support: 55.78 / 54.97
Oil prices rebounded on heightened geopolitical risks and supply disruption concerns. Crude bounced from the 54.97–55.78 support zone but remains capped below 58.39–59.19. The broader trend stays bearish, with short-term price action driven mainly by geopolitical headlines.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4,482 / 4,508
- Support: 4,426 / 4,400
Gold remains strongly supported by safe-haven demand and expectations for further Fed easing in 2026. Price has held firmly above the 4,400 level after a brief pullback. Upside targets lie at 4,482–4,508, with pullbacks viewed as technical corrections within a bullish trend.
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 69.27 / 69.55
- Support: 67.15 / 66.87
Silver continues to track gold higher on strong safe-haven flows and USD weakness. Price remains well supported above the 67.15–66.87 zone, maintaining a bullish structure. Upside momentum may slow near the 69.27–69.55 resistance band.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48,431 / 48,743
- Support: 47,720 / 47,403
Cooling inflation has reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts, supporting risk sentiment ahead of the holidays. The Dow Futures stabilized above the 47,403–47,720 support zone and is now testing resistance at 48,431–48,743. Without a clear breakout, near-term consolidation is likely.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25,602 / 25,832
- Support: 25,076 / 24,843
The NAS100 remains driven by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks, benefiting from easing rate expectations. The index rebounded from the 24,843–25,076 support zone and is now retesting resistance at 25,602–25,832. A pause may occur if resistance holds, but the broader uptrend remains intact.
BTC
- Resistance: 90,745/91,954
- Support: 86,830/85,600
Bitcoin edged higher toward the $90,000 level as expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 supported broader risk sentiment. However, slowing ETF inflows and thin year-end liquidity continue to cap upside momentum. Price action remains range-bound, with $90,000 acting as a key psychological ceiling.
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