Market Highlight 19/12/2025
On Thursday, U.S. November CPI came in below expectations, briefly reinforcing market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply ahead of the U.S. session, approaching the 98 level. However, as traders reassessed the policy outlook, the dollar recovered most of its losses and ended slightly higher by 0.06% at 98.44. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield declining to 4.125% and the 2-year yield at 3.473%.
Risk assets performed relatively resiliently overall. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq outperforming. European equities also finished broadly higher. In precious metals, spot gold surged to around $4,370 following the CPI release but later gave back gains and closed slightly lower, while silver weakened in tandem. Crude oil remained range-bound as investors continued to assess the impact of Russian sanctions and the risks to Venezuelan supply.
Key Outlook 19/12/2025
Today’s focus is on the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and press conference, with markets expecting a 25-bp hike to 0.75%. A confirmed hike would likely support the yen while weighing on the Nikkei, with the governor’s guidance on policy and the economy key for Asia-Pacific market volatility. In Europe, weak German PPI and GfK data may pressure the euro but should have a limited impact on equity markets. In North America, stronger Canadian retail sales could support the loonie, while U.S. consumer sentiment may underpin the dollar and equities, with existing home sales expected to have a muted effect.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***
- 14:30 BoJ Press Conference ***
- 15:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY NOV **
- 15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence JAN **
- 21:30 CA Retail Sales MoM OCT **
- 23:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash DEC **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final DEC ***
- 23:00 US Existing Home Sales NOV **
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: GB GDP Final Q3, CA PPI
- Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, US GDP & Core PCE Prices (Q3), US Durable Goods Orders, CA GDP, US Industrial & Manufacturing Production, US CB Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, US New Home Sales
- Wednesday: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Initial Jobless Claims, API & EIA Crude Oil Inventories, BOC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- Thursday: Christmas Holiday
- Friday: JP Unemployment Rate
Markets Analysis 19/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1793 / 1.1815
- Support: 1.1678 / 1.1650
EUR/USD edged lower after the European Central Bank kept policy unchanged, while softer U.S. CPI limited the dollar’s upside. Technically, the pair remains within an ascending channel, with the 1.1678–1.1650 zone acting as a key pivot. If support holds, prices may attempt another move toward the 1.1793–1.1815 resistance area. A downside break, however, could open the door to a test of the channel’s lower boundary.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3455 / 1.3509
- Support: 1.3316 / 1.3275
GBP/USD rose despite the Bank of England’s fourth rate cut this year, as markets pushed expectations for the next cut further out, improving short-term sentiment. Technically, the pair remains within an ascending channel, with strong buying interest around 1.3316 providing key support on pullbacks. If upside momentum persists, prices may retest the 1.3455 resistance zone, though UK inflation and upcoming data will be crucial in determining whether a breakout can be sustained.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.25 / 156.88
- Support: 154.74 / 154.25
USD/JPY continued to weaken following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, while markets have largely priced in a BoJ rate hike, keeping the yen supported. Technically, the pair remains capped near the 156 level, with strong resistance at 156.25–156.88. A more hawkish BoJ tone could see the pair retest the 154.74–154.25 support zone.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 57.08 / 57.73
- Support: 54.97 / 54.33
Oil prices edged higher on geopolitical support but remain constrained by a broader descending channel, suggesting the rebound is largely technical. The $57.08–$57.73 zone remains a significant resistance area, and failure to break higher could lead to a pullback toward the $54.97 support level. Near-term price action remains driven by geopolitical developments, with additional catalysts needed to confirm trend direction.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4,369 / 4,398
- Support: 4,274 / 4,245
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 66.78 / 67.80
- Support: 64.48 / 63.35
Gold prices consolidated at elevated levels after the inflation release, with bulls choosing to digest gains above $4,330, suggesting no urgency to exit positions. If prices find support in the $4,274–$4,245 area, another test of the $4,369–$4,398 resistance zone remains possible. Further direction will largely depend on whether central bank guidance continues to reinforce expectations for rate cuts.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48431 / 48744
- Support: 47719 / 47400
The Dow Futures advanced as softer U.S. inflation reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting risk sentiment. Capital flowed back into equities, though broader moves remain guided by macro and policy expectations. Technically, the index is testing the 47719–47400 support zone and holding above this area could open the door to a rebound toward the 48431–48744 resistance range.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25367 / 25,605
- Support: 24844 / 24610
The NAS100 rebounded on renewed AI-related optimism and easing inflation, but selling pressure remains evident near the 25367–25605 zone, where prices have repeatedly pulled back. As long as pullbacks hold above 24,844, the index has scope for renewed upside tests. A decisive break below support, however, could shift momentum back to the downside.
BTC
- Resistance: 89255 / 91315
- Support: 82625 / 80537
Bitcoin remained capped despite softer US CPI data, as persistent ETF outflows continued to weigh on sentiment. Technically, the 89,255–91,315 zone remains a heavy supply area, repeatedly rejecting upside attempts. On the downside, 82,625–80,537 is the key support band—a hold here could stabilize price action, while a clean break lower may extend the corrective phase.
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