Market Highlight 12/12/2025
U.S. initial jobless claims posted their most significant increase in nearly four and a half years, though analysts attributed the volatility to year-end holiday distortions. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed. The Dow rose 1.34%, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.25%. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since late October, with EUR/USD climbing to a nine-week high.
Gold extended its rally, hitting a more than one-month high, while silver surged to a fresh record. Spot gold closed nearly 1.3% higher at $4,282.8 per ounce after touching its highest level since October 21. Oil prices declined as investors focused on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and grew concerned about a significant surplus in U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories. OPEC stated that the oil market will be roughly balanced in 2026. Still, the IEA warned of a potential enormous oversupply, projecting global supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day.
Key Outlook 12/12/2025
Markets will now turn to the U.K.’s GDP release. Economists expect the three-month GDP through October to show stagnation, while both manufacturing and industrial production are projected to rebound from previous declines. These data are unlikely to shift expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates next week. Germany’s final CPI reading for November is also due, with the annual rate expected to hold at 2.3%.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final NOV **
- 15:00 GB GDP OCT **
- 15:00 GB Industrial Production OCT **
- 15:00 GB Manufacturing Production OCT **
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production, CA CPI, US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday: US Non-Farm Payrolls, AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing & Services PMI, GB Unemployment Rate, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US Housing Starts & Building Permits
- Wednesday: GB CPI & PPI, EU CPI, GERMANY Ifo Business Climate, U.S. Retail Sales, API & EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, JP CPI, GERMANY PPI, GB Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Existing Home Sales
Markets Analysis 12/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1778/1.1797
- Support: 1.1695/1.1675
EUR/USD climbed above 1.1740 as the Fed cut and soft US data weighed on the Dollar, while Lagarde’s stance that policy is “appropriately positioned” added support. Technically, the pair held the breakout above the 1.1695 demand zone, and as long as this area remains intact, upside bias stays toward 1.1778–1.1797.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3455/1.3509
- Support: 1.3317/1.3275
GBP/USD stayed firm above 1.3400 as the Fed cut lifted risk appetite and pressured the Dollar. Price holding above 1.3317 and the rising trend structure keeps a bullish tilt, with any shallow pullbacks likely to base before a renewed push toward 1.3455.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.54/156.96
- Support: 154.75/154.33
USD/JPY eased to around 155.60 as weak US jobless data and a dovish Fed weighed on the Dollar, while expectations of a possible BoJ hike capped the upside. Technically, repeated failures to reclaim the 156.54 supply zone highlight fading momentum, and rejection from the supply zone leaves the pair vulnerable to another dip toward the 154.75 support level.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 58.79/59.19
- Support: 57.09/56.69
WTI slipped toward $57.60 as geopolitical de-escalation and surplus US fuel inventories weighed on sentiment, while peace-talk expectations raised concerns of Russian supply returning. Technically, price has broken below the rising trendline, and repeated rejection near 58.79 suggests the downside remains exposed, keeping $57.09 in focus.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4304/4341
- Support: 4245/4209
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 65.96/67.22
- Support: 60.58/59.34
Gold trades above $4,280, its highest in over a month, supported by the Fed’s rate cut and a softer Dollar, with silver’s record rally boosting precious-metal sentiment. Technically, price has broken above the descending trendline and is holding the $4,245–$4,209 zone; as long as this area holds on retests, the path remains open toward $4,304 – $4,341.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 49068/49473
- Support: 48032/47719
The Dow futures surged to a record close, lifted by value and small-cap strength, while Disney gained 2.4% on its OpenAI investment. Technically, price has broken above the descending trendline and is holding firmly above 48,032; if retests stay supported, the bias remains a push toward fresh a high near 49,068–49,473.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26182/26452
- Support: 25293/25018
The NAS100 slipped 0.25% as tech lagged amid sector rotation, with Oracle plunging over 10% on weak guidance. Technically, price continues to struggle below 25,800, keeping the near-term tone range-bound with a mild bearish tilt; only if buyers defend the 25,293–25,018 zone could a fresh push higher materialize.
BTC
- Resistance: 94520/96025
- Support: 89754/88274
Bitcoin slipped toward 90K as divided Fed votes, and a slower easing outlook weighed on risk sentiment, while weak tech sentiment—driven by Oracle’s AI disappointment—added pressure. Technically, BTC may reject near 94,520, keeping downside momentum toward the 89,754 support level.
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