Market Highlight 08/12/2025
The U.S. core PCE price index slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in September, marking a three-month low and signaling weakening economic momentum toward the end of Q3. U.S. equities closed slightly higher on Friday, as the latest batch of economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.31%, the Nasdaq gained 0.91%, and the Dow added 0.5%, with all three indices recording a second consecutive week of gains. The U.S. dollar slipped modestly on Friday but remained within its recent range against major currencies. The dollar index fell 0.1% to 98.994, down 0.5% for the week. EUR/USD was little changed at 1.1642.
Spot gold reversed earlier gains and closed down 0.27% at $4,196.53 per ounce. Silver surged to a record high of $59.32 before settling 2.04% higher at $58.2756. International oil prices edged up to a two-week high, supported by expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, which may boost economic activity and energy demand. Geopolitical uncertainty may also constrain supplies from Russia and Venezuela.
Key Outlook 08/12/2025
This week’s focus will be on major economic releases and central bank decisions across the globe. Markets will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year, where a rate cut is widely expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also announce their policy decisions. Meanwhile, UK GDP data, along with economic indicators from the Eurozone and Germany, will provide additional direction for global markets.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production OCT **
- 17:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence DEC **
Tomorrow:
- 11:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***
- 12:30 RBA Press Conference ***
- 19:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index NOV **
Markets Analysis 08/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1676/1.1696
- Support: 1.1612/1.1592
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1643 as markets awaited the Fed decision, with strong rate-cut bets keeping the USD under pressure. Weak U.S. labor data reinforced the dovish tone, leaving the dollar near a five-week low. Technically, a dip toward the 1.1612 demand zone may attract buyers for a rebound toward 1.1676.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3412/1.3455
- Support: 1.3275/1.3232
GBP/USD held near 1.3330, close to a six-week high as broad USD weakness supported the pair ahead of the Fed decision. With limited UK catalysts, sentiment stayed stable on expectations of a U.S. rate cut. Technically, price may retest 1.3275 before attempting a move toward the 1.3412 resistance.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 155.75/156.26
- Support: 154.25/153.61
USD/JPY eased to 155.30 as markets priced in a potential BoJ rate hike, keeping the yen supported while USD weakness persisted ahead of the Fed decision. Sentiment remains tilted bearish with expectations of policy tightening in Japan. Technically, the pair continues to track a descending channel, with risk of a move toward 154.25 if 155.75 holds as resistance.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 60.92/61.36
- Support: 59.45/59.00
WTI steadied near $60 after a 1% rise, supported by Fed easing hopes and ongoing geopolitical tension. The market tone stays mildly bullish despite mixed OPEC signals. Technically, WTI is attempting to establish a base above the broken trendline, with buyers eyeing a drift toward $60.92 as long as the market defends the $59.45 support zone.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4151/4121
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 59.29/60.15
- Support: 57.26/56.61
Gold hovered near $4,204, holding above the key $4,200 region as markets priced in a high chance of a Fed rate cut and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Safe-haven demand stayed supportive while silver outperformed with fresh highs. Technically, gold is testing the descending trendline, with price coiling for either a breakout above $4,245 or a deeper pullback toward $4,151 if momentum fades.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48432/48745
- Support: 47399/47080
The Dow futures rose 0.22% as cooling-but-steady U.S. data supported expectations of a Fed rate cut this week. Falling yields continued to lift rate-sensitive stocks. Technically, the index is trying to hold above 47,399 support, with buyers eyeing a push toward 48,432 if dips into the demand zone attract renewed momentum.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26182/26452
- Support: 25293/25018
The NAS100 gained 0.31%, lifted by strength in communication services as sentiment improved on growing confidence in Fed easing. Tech remained mostly resilient despite stock-specific weakness from Netflix and Paramount. Technically, the index is holding above 25,293, with momentum favouring a push toward 26,182 if buyers continue defending pullbacks.
BTC
- Resistance: 93065/94517
- Support: 86805/85328
Bitcoin holds near $90,600, with price still respecting the ascending channel but facing resistance near $93.065–94,517. Cautious sentiment persists ahead of the Fed decision, while fading institutional inflows increase volatility risk. A rejection at the channel top could trigger a drop toward $86,805 support level.
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