Market Highlight 05/12/2025
US initial jobless claims dropped to a more than three-year low last week, alleviating concerns about a worsening labor market. US equities closed mostly unchanged on Thursday as investors evaluated the labour-market report alongside other economic data, while rising expectations of a Fed rate cut next week provided some support. The Dow decreased by 0.07%, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.2%. The US Dollar Index rose marginally by 0.1% to 99.02, though it stayed close to a five-week intraday low. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1649.
Gold prices remained largely steady as rising US Treasury yields balanced out the support from a softer dollar. Traders stayed cautious ahead of important US inflation data. Spot gold ticked up 0.04% to $4,207.72 per ounce. Oil prices closed higher, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut and stalled peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which dampened hopes of a deal to restore Russian oil supplies.
Key Outlook 05/12/2025
Today, attention shifts to the Eurozone’s Q3 annualised GDP revision, which is projected to remain at 1.4%, thereby maintaining the European Central Bank’s current policy stance. However, the main focus is on tonight’s US inflation report. With next week marking the Fed’s final rate decision for the year, the September PCE Price Index will be crucial in deciding whether policymakers will proceed with a rate cut as markets anticipate. Consensus forecasts expect core PCE inflation to stay at 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Tonight’s figures are likely to cause significant market volatility.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM OCT **
- 18:00 EU GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q3 ***
- 21:30 CA Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 23:00 US Core PCE Price Index YoY SEP ***
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel DEC ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: JP GDP, EU GERMANY Industrial Production
- Tuesday: RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US JOLTs Job Openings
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, CN CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, US PPI
- Friday: JP Industrial Production, GB GDP, GB Industrial & Manufacturing Production
Markets Analysis 05/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1696/1.1721
- Support: 1.1631/1.1612
EUR/USD dipped 0.2% to 1.1649 as the dollar staged a brief rebound, despite strong Eurozone activity data. Fed rate-cut odds near 90% helped limit downside pressure. The pair remains supported above 1.1631, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3412/1.3455
- Support: 1.3275/1.3232
GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3333 but held close to recent highs, with downside limited by firm expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. A mild dollar rebound briefly weighed on the pair. Technically, the break above the descending trendline keeps a move toward 1.3412 in play.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 155.75/156.26
- Support: 154.25/153.61
USD/JPY declined to 155.02 (-0.2%) amid speculation of a possible BOJ rate hike, which kept the yen supported. Traders became cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data, restricting any recovery attempts. The pair continues to hover below the descending trendline, leaving room for another move towards 154.25.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 60.35/60.92
- Support: 59.00/58.55
WTI rose 1.22% to $59.67 as renewed Fed rate-cut expectations and stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept investors in control. The geopolitical deadlock added support, balancing out pressure from a surprise U.S. inventory increase. Momentum remains upward, with markets reaching the $60.35 resistance level.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4180/4151
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 58.62/59.29
- Support: 56.61/55.74
Gold hovered around $4,210 as stronger U.S. yields muted the boost from a softer dollar, keeping price action in a narrow range. Traders largely remained on the sidelines ahead of the PCE release, which is expected to influence next week’s Fed decision. Near-term momentum stays neutral, but a break above $4,245 could reopen upside potential.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48432/48745
- Support: 47398/47080
The Dow futures fell by 0.07%, weighed down by Amazon’s decline, while optimism about rate cuts kept overall sentiment steady. Mixed U.S. data — strong jobless claims but weak factory orders — added to the hesitation. Price movements remain volatile, with buyers expected to defend the 47,398 support level.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25838/26182
- Support: 25293/25018
NAS100 edged up 0.22% as strength in AI-linked names such as Salesforce and Meta helped counter Amazon’s slide. Fed rate-cut expectations kept the broader tech mood constructive, despite mixed U.S. data. Price remains supported above 25,293, with bulls eyeing a retest of 25,838.
BTC
- Resistance: 96015/97889
- Support: 91215/89765
Bitcoin remains above $92,000 despite mixed ETF flows, with $15M in U.S. spot ETF outflows indicating softer institutional demand. Holding 91,215 maintains a short-term bullish outlook towards 96,015, but a drop below this support could lead to a deeper correction towards 89,000.
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