Market Highlight 02/12/2025
US manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, as factories faced a combination of declining orders and rising raw material costs, while the drag from import tariffs persisted. US equities closed slightly lower on Monday, pressured by a jump in Treasury yields and data showing tariffs continue to weigh on the manufacturing sector. Investors are now awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve policy announcement. The Dow fell 0.89%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.53%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.38%. The US Dollar Index remained weak, slipping 0.07% to 99.41. EUR/USD rose 0.1% late in the session and briefly gained 0.5% intraday, hitting the highest level in more than two weeks.
Gold edged higher, touching an intraday high of $4,264.29 per ounce, the highest level since October 21—supported by rising expectations of US rate cuts and a softer dollar. Meanwhile, silver surged to a record high ahead of key US economic data. Spot gold finished up 0.05% at $4,232.45 per ounce. Oil prices climbed more than 1% as Ukraine launched drone attacks, the US closed Venezuelan airspace, and OPEC decided to maintain its production levels for the first quarter of 2026.
Key Outlook 02/12/2025
Today’s focus is on the Eurozone’s November CPI flash estimate, which is expected to remain above 2% (previous 2.1%). Since the European Central Bank has ended its rate-cut cycle, an in-line reading is unlikely to provide meaningful directional signals. The October unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.3%.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 09:00 Fed Chair Powell Speech ***
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash NOV **
- 18:00 EU Unemployment Rate OCT **
Tomorrow:
- 05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
- 08:30 AU GDP QoQ Q3 **
- 08:30 JP Services PMI Final NOV **
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final NOV **
- 17:00 EU Services PMI Final NOV **
- 17:30 GB Services PMI Final NOV **
- 18:00 EU PPI MoM OCT **
- 21:15 US ADP Employment Change NOV ***
- 22:45 US Services PMI Final NOV **
- 23:00 US ISM Services PMI NOV **
- 23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Markets Analysis 02/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1631/1.1656
- Support: 1.1572/1.1553
EUR/USD inched higher as the dollar weakened on stronger Fed rate-cut expectations, with markets pricing an 87% chance of a December cut. Softer U.S. manufacturing data added downside pressure to the dollar. Technically, EUR/USD is stabilizing above 1.1572 support, with scope to retest 1.1631 if buyers hold the zone.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3248/1.3276
- Support: 1.3185/1.3157
GBP/USD slipped 0.2% as higher U.S. yields, boosted by BoJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish tone, provided mild support to the dollar. With no major UK catalysts in the session, price action was mainly USD-driven. Technically, GBP/USD is pressuring the 1.3248 zone, with risks leaning toward a dip toward 1.3185 support.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.26/156.89
- Support: 154.74/154.25
USD/JPY dropped 0.7% to 155.09 as BoJ Governor Ueda issued his clearest signal yet that a December rate hike is on the table, sharply lifting JPY sentiment. Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut added further pressure on the dollar. Technically, price is capped by the descending trendline, with downside risk toward 154.74 if 156.26 remains intact.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.91/60.35
- Support: 59.00/58.56
WTI climbed 1.32% to around $59.32 as Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia revived concerns over supply disruption. Additional support came from Venezuela-related geopolitical uncertainty and OPEC+ keeping Q1 2026 output steady. Technically, price is holding above the ascending trendline, with scope for a retest of $59.91 if $59.00 support remains intact.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4180/4151
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 57.93/58.61
- Support: 55.74/55.05
Spot gold surged to $4,264, it’s highest in six weeks, as markets priced in an 87% chance of a December Fed rate cut and the dollar slipped. Expectations of a more dovish incoming Fed chair further lifted sentiment. Technically, gold has broken above the descending trendline and is consolidating below $4,245; holding above $4,180 keeps the bias tilted toward $4,300+.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47721/48033
- Support: 47086/46769
The Dow futures fell 0.90% as rising U.S. yields pressured rate-sensitive sectors, while ISM data showed manufacturing contracting for a ninth straight month. Sentiment remains cautious ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Technically, the index consolidates below 47,721, with a downside risk toward 47,086 if the price stays capped beneath resistance.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25567/25837
- Support: 25018/24743
The NAS100 slipped 0.38% as rising U.S. yields pressured growth stocks, though Synopsys jumped 4.9% after securing a $2B investment from Nvidia. Markets remain focused on the December Fed meeting. Technically,
the index is holding above 25,018 support, with a potential rebound toward 25,567 if the 25,300 zone is defended.
BTC
- Resistance: 90117/91622
- Support: 83847/82393
Bitcoin slumped toward $85,800 after the Yearn Finance ETH-pool exploit sparked liquidity fears and broad crypto selling. Despite an 87% probability of a December Fed cut, BTC remains trapped in a low-volume range between $80,000 and $92,000. Technically, price is holding above the $83,847 support level, with potential for a rebound toward resistance near $90,117 if buyers defend the base.
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