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Fed Chair Speech to Set Tone for September Interest Rates Hinges

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Trump stated that the U.S. has no intention of extending its memorandum of understanding with Iran. Qatar’s Prime Minister visited Tehran on Thursday to meet Iran’s chief negotiator in an attempt to restart stalled diplomatic talks. Markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

Today’s focus: Fed Chair Warsh’s speech will be pivotal in shaping market expectations for September and year‑end rate policy and will be a key factor in determining the direction of financial markets as August closes.

 

Global Market Review 28/08/2026

  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell for the second consecutive week, with Continuing Claims dropping to a one‑month low.
  • On Thursday, U.S. equities rose, led by technology stocks boosted by Nvidia’s earnings and upbeat forecasts: Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.72%, Nasdaq +1.57%.
  • The dollar was little changed late in the session; gold rebounded slightly as markets awaited Warsh’s speech today.
  • Crude oil rose nearly 2% after Trump said the U.S. would not extend its memorandum of understanding with Iran.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JUL **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate AUG **
  • 17:00 EU Economic Sentiment AUG **
  • 20:30 CA GDP MoM JUN **
  • 22:00 Fed Chair Warsh Speech ***
  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final AUG ***

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)

  • Monday: UK Holiday, CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, GERMANY CPI, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Tuesday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI Final, GERMANY Retail Sales, EU CPI & Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS Job Openings
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, AU GDP, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US ADP Employment Change, US Factory Orders, BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
  • Thursday: Fed Beige Book, AU/JP/EU/GB/US Services & Composite PMI Final, EU PPI, US Balance of Trade & Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI
  • Friday: GERMANY Factory Orders, BoE Gov Bailey Speech, EU Retail Sales, US Non-Farm Payrolls, CA Unemployment Rate

 

Markets Analysis 28/08/2026

20260828

  • Resistance: 1.1712 / 1.1753
  • Support: 1.1575 / 1.1533

ECB minutes showed policymakers are considering another rate hike, possibly as early as September. EUR/USD trades cautiously ahead of Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Price fell yesterday but held above the 10-day MA. Warsh’s speech will determine whether EUR/USD breaks key support into lower ranges or remains in the recent high range.

Bias: Range watch

20260828

  • Resistance: 1.3626 / 1.3668
  • Support: 1.3558 / 1.3516

Investors lowered expectations of a BoE rate hike. GBP/USD hovered near 1.3600 on Thursday, awaiting Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Closed at a one‑week low, testing below the 10‑day MA near 1.3600. Failure to reclaim may target the 20‑day MA near 1.3540.

Bias: Weak trading

20260828

  • Resistance: 159.78 / 159.98
  • Support: 159.11 / 158.90

Tokyo CPI accelerated slightly, raising expectations of a BoJ hike, but the yen’s reaction was limited. USD/JPY extended its mild gains and was steady this morning.

Analyst View: Fourth straight daily gain, hitting one‑week highs. Momentum remains modest; Warsh’s speech could add upside impetus.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260828

  • Resistance: 84.62 / 85.57
  • Support: 81.54 / 80.57

Oil extended its rebound as the U.S.–Iran MOU expired, limiting delivery through the Strait of Hormuz and raising supply concerns. Focus on Qatar–Iran talks.

Analyst View: Hovering near 10‑day MA. A breakout could extend the rebound above $84; failure would keep oil consolidating within the weekly range.

Bias: Weak rebound

20260828

  • Resistance: 4639 / 4669
  • Support: 4545 / 4516

20260828

  • Resistance: 69.91 / 70.40
  • Support: 68.43 / 67.80

Gold fell below $4,600 on Thursday, awaiting Warsh’s speech.

Analyst View: Bulls defended $4,600. If Warsh is dovish, gold could rally above $4,640.

Bias: Wait-and-see

20260828

  • Resistance: 53,998 / 54,382
  • Support: 53,151 / 52,773

U.S. indices rose on Thursday, boosted by Nvidia’s earnings. Dow gained over 100 points, awaiting Warsh’s speech for rate guidance.

Analyst View: Volatility increased, but Dow recovered above key MAs. If Warsh downplays hikes, Dow could challenge 54,000.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260828

  • Resistance: 29,883 / 30,042
  • Support: 29,396 / 29,195

Nvidia’s strong forecast reinforced AI momentum, lifting tech stocks broadly. Nvidia shares +8.7%, adding $440B in market cap; Nasdaq +1.5%.

Analyst View: Broke above 10‑ and 20‑day MAs. Warsh’s speech could accelerate rebound toward 30,000.

Bias: Improving momentum

20260828

  • Resistance: 81,866 / 82,324
  • Support: 79,466 / 78,892

Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday, topping $80,000 as Nvidia’s results lifted risk sentiment. The market awaits Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

Analyst View: BTC/USD extended gains, testing above $80,000, the highest since mid‑May. Watch whether bulls turn cautious at prior highs; Warsh’s speech will influence momentum.

Bias: Cautiously bullish

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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