Market Highlight 27/11/2025
The Fed’s Beige Book showed little overall change in U.S. economic activity, while a government shutdown weighed on demand in several regions. Jobless claims fell to a seven-month low. U.S. stocks extended gains on Wednesday, led by tech, as expectations for a December Fed rate cut increased ahead of Thanksgiving. The Dow rose 0.67%, the S&P 500 gained 0.69%, and the Nasdaq added 0.8%.
The dollar initially rose before reversing lower, dragged down indirectly by a stronger British pound, which was boosted by the UK Autumn Budget’s better-than-expected fiscal buffer.
Gold held near a one-week high on rising rate-cut bets, with spot prices up 0.8% to $4,163.99. Oil rebounded from a one-month low as investors evaluated oversupply risks and progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Key Outlook 27/11/2025
With U.S. markets shut for Thanksgiving, trading will be quiet as investors digest Wednesday’s data. Attention shifts to Europe, where Germany’s December GfK Consumer Confidence and the Eurozone’s November Economic Sentiment Index are due, with the latter likely to show further improvement. The ECB will also release minutes from its October meeting, though no major surprises are expected.
In the U.S., September durable goods orders are forecast to slow sharply to 0.9%, while the return of initial jobless claims could add some volatility.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence DEC **
- 18:00 EU Economic Sentiment NOV **
- 20:30 ECB Meeting Minutes ***
Tomorrow:
- 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate OCT **
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM OCT **
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 21:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM Prel NOV **
- 21:30 CA GDP MoM SEP **
Markets Analysis 27/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1656/1.1676
- Support: 1.1573/1.1553
EUR/USD edged toward 1.1590 as Fed rate-cut expectations held near 85%, keeping the dollar broadly pressured ahead of the Thanksgiving break. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.1573 support, with room to extend toward 1.1655 if the pullback structure completes, and buyers defend the higher-low zone. Soft Eurozone sentiment capped gains but was offset by a steady ECB tone.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3285/1.3305
- Support: 1.3190/1.3169
GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3230 after the UK budget revealed a larger-than-expected fiscal buffer, easing concerns about borrowing risk and lifting sentiment. Broad USD weakness driven by firm Fed rate-cut expectations added support. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.3190, with momentum pointing toward a potential retest of 1.3285 once the pullback structure completes.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.26/156.89
- Support: 155.25/154.74
USD/JPY eased to around 156.40 after briefly dipping to 155.66, as markets weighed chatter of potential BoJ tightening while doubting its ability to shift long-term yen pressure. Holiday-thin liquidity kept traders alert to possible FX intervention. Technically, the pair remains capped below the descending trendline, with price vulnerable to further downside toward 155.25 if the rebound fails.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.18/59.51
- Support: 57.78/57.44
WTI rebounded toward $58.60 after touching a one-month low, as markets weighed oversupply concerns against progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. A surprise 2.8M-barrel jump in U.S. crude inventories added demand uncertainty. Technically, prices are attempting to reclaim the broken trendline, with support at $57.78; a sustained hold could open the door to a push toward $59.18.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4208/4245
- Support: 4121/4093
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 53.88/54.30
- Support: 52.45/51.90
Gold climbed toward $4,165, its highest level in a week, as markets showed an 85% chance of a December Fed rate cut, keeping bullish sentiment intact despite a steady dollar. Technically, gold is holding above $4,121 support and maintains a rising structure, with room to extend toward $4,208 if buyers remain in control.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47721/48033
- Support: 47087/46769
The Dow futures climbed 0.67% for a fourth consecutive session as firm Fed rate-cut expectations and sector strength in tech and airlines kept risk appetite supported. Technically, the index is holding above 47,087 support and forming a steady higher-low structure, with potential to retest the 47,721 resistance zone if buyers maintain momentum.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25569/25838
- Support: 25020/24746
NAS100 rose 0.82% as tech momentum returned, led by Dell’s nearly 6% jump on strong guidance. With Fed rate-cut expectations anchoring sentiment ahead of Thanksgiving, the index holds above 25,200 support. It is forming a higher-low pattern, suggesting room for a push toward the 25,569 resistance zone.
BTC
- Resistance: 93065/94505
- Support: 88322/86857
Bitcoin reclaimed $90,000 as Fed rate-cut expectations lifted risk sentiment, supported by a softer dollar and firmer gold. Technically, BTC is holding above the rising trendline, with bulls eyeing a move toward 93,000 if it retests and targets the 88,322–86,857 support zone. Stronger U.S. labor data remains a modest cap on upside momentum.
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