Market Highlight 20251017
U.S. stocks closed lower as fresh signs of weakness in regional banks rattled already nervous investors amid escalating trade tensions. Shares of Zions Bancorporation plunged 13% after reporting unexpected losses on two California loans, fueling concerns over hidden credit risks. The Dow Jones fell 0.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.63%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.47%. The U.S. dollar declined for a third consecutive day against major peers, with the euro climbing to a one-week high.
Gold prices extended their record-breaking rally, surging above $4,300 per ounce as intensifying trade tensions and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown drove safe-haven demand, while rate-cut expectations further supported the metal. Spot gold settled at $4,325.35, up 2.8%. Oil prices fell over 2% after U.S. President Donald Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss ending the Ukraine war, injecting uncertainty into global energy supply.
Key Outlook 20251017
The Eurozone will release final September CPI figures, with the annual rate expected to remain steady at 2.2% and monthly growth modest, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will keep policy unchanged this month. Later in the day, markets will watch for U.S. September building permits and housing starts data, though rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on the real estate sector, pointing to further slowdown ahead.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 17:00 EU CPI MoM Final SEP **
- 21:15 US Manufacturing Production MoM SEP **
- 21:15 US Building Permits MoM SEP **
- 21:15 US Housing Starts SEP **
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: NZ CPI, CN GDP, GERMANY PPI, CA PPI
- Tuesday: CA CPI
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, GB CPI & PPI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Thursday: EU Consumer Confidence, US Existing Home Sales & Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: AU/EU/GB/US Manufacturing & Services PMI, JP CPI, GB Retail Sales, US CPI, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, US Building Permits & New Home Sales
Markets Analysis 20251017
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1741/1.1757
- Support: 1.1674/1.1661
EUR/USD rose 0.36% to 1.1688 as Fed rate-cut bets weighed on the dollar and France’s political relief boosted sentiment. Technically, the pair broke above the downtrend line, eyeing 1.1741 resistance, while 1.1674 acts as near-term support.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3494/1.3536
- Support: 1.3393/1.3359
GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3450, supported by upbeat UK data and Fed rate-cut expectations. Technically, Cable broke above its downtrend line, eyeing 1.3494 resistance. Pullbacks toward 1.3393 support may attract buyers as momentum stays bullish.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 150.52/150.75
- Support: 150.00/149.82
USD/JPY fell 0.46% to 151.35 as BoJ’s Shimizu stressed caution on policy normalization, adding pressure to the dollar amid U.S. shutdown risks. Technically, the pair stays below trendline resistance, with sellers eyeing a move toward 150.00 support if 150.52 caps rebounds.
US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)
- Resistance: 59.83/60.13
- Support: 57.63/57.33
WTI crude slid over 3% to $57.46 after Trump and Putin agreed on a summit over Ukraine. U.S. stockpiles surged +3.5m bbl and output hit 13.6 mbpd, weighing further. Technically, prices remain capped below $59.83 resistance with risks pointing toward $57.63 support.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4381/4416
- Support: 4300/4271
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 54.72/55.07
- Support: 53.09/52.73
Gold surged to a record $4,379/oz before easing to $4,361, supported by trade tensions, U.S. shutdown, and credit market fears. Rate-cut bets underpin bullish momentum. Technically, $4,300 offers key support with upside aiming $4,381–$4,416.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46418/46568
- Support: 45638/45486
The Dow Futures slipped 0.65% to 45,952 as regional bank stress and credit risks weighed, with financials down 2.75% and energy off 1.12%. Technically, resistance sits near 46,418, while support is seen at 45,638.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24958/25079
- Support: 24453/24336
NAS100 slipped 0.47% as AI-linked stocks (Meta, Palantir, Tesla) edged lower, though Salesforce jumped 4% on upbeat guidance. Technically, resistance stands near 24,958, with a downside risk toward 24,453 if support breaks.
BTC
- Resistance: 109752/110613
- Support: 106898/105784
Bitcoin slipped to $111.5K (-2.2%) under U.S.-China trade tensions and the DOJ’s $15B seizure. Market sentiment remains weak after last week’s $16B liquidation, though Fed rate-cut bets provide some cushion. Technically, BTC faces resistance at $109,752–111,613, with support near $106.9K; a break lower may trigger deeper losses.
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