差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英央行決議重磅來襲! 為何加息步伐停不下來?

英國央行決議公佈最新政策走向,早前已經有很多市場人士押注英央行會在此次會議中再度加息。實際上,在12月16日,英格蘭銀行議息會議就宣布將基準利率從0.1%提升至0.25%,成為自新冠肺炎疫情暴發以來首個加息的主要經濟體央行。自俄烏戰爭爆發至今,能源價格飆升也令英國的通脹超出市場預期,增加了英央行再度加息的可能性。

 

通貨膨脹直線上升

市場新聞都在關注美國不斷上漲的通脹率的時候,英國的通脹率也出現了直線上升的趨勢。隨著防疫限制措施解除,英國經濟正在快速復蘇,英國1月居民消費價格指數(CPI)按年增長率升至5.5%,創30年來新高,這已經是英國通脹率出人意料地第4個月大幅上升,遠遠超出了市場的預期以及目標的2%水平。不過,市場認為目前英國的通脹率還並沒有見頂。

為了抑制持續飆升的通脹率,英央行已經在2月3日再度加息25個基點至0.5%。在今晚的會議中會迎來第三次加息嗎?路透在2月7日至11日的調查顯示,近三分之二的受訪者預計英國央行在今晚會議上將升息25個基點至0.75%。如果預測成真,這將成為自1997年以來,英國央行首次連續三次會議提高利率。

在2月的會議中4名英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會傾向於將銀行利率提高0.5個百分點,直接至0.75%。因此,也有交易員預計有50%的可能性此次會議會決定加息50個基點,但這是英央行從未實行過的政策。

伴隨加息而來的還有更多緊縮政策,英央行在其首次加息的時候已經開始計劃縮減其8950億英鎊的債券購買計劃,不過當時維持購債規模不變。市場已經準備迎接英格蘭銀行的債券購買計劃逆轉,並預計英央行最早從 3 月開始縮減資產負債表,所以縮表的進度以及具體開始的時點也會是今晚會議的另一大焦點。

 

再度加息概率大增

俄烏戰爭爆發後,英國的能源價格大幅上升,加劇了目前的通脹水平。據英國央行的智囊團預測,消費者價格通脹將在 4 月達到高水平 7.25% 左右,並預計家庭能源關稅將較烏克蘭危機前期間上漲愈一半。所以,預計英央行加息的步伐不會停下來,有市場人士預計英央行將在3月和5月的會議上累計升息75個基點,2022年或加息2至4次。

UK-inflation-monetary-policy(來源:路透社對英國通貨膨脹率及貨幣政策的預測)

 

從經濟增長角度,英國的經濟復甦情況優於市場預期。英國1月GDP環比增長0.8%,大幅超出市場預期值的0.1%以及前值-0.2%;GDP同比增長10%,高於預期9.3%以及前值6%。英國的市場需求或進一步得到釋放,推動各行業全面復甦。

 

在截至1月份的三個月內,英國失業率降至3.9%,為2020年年初以來的最低水平。勞動力不足意味著加劇商品供應短缺,從而加劇通脹上行風險,這也可能會加速英央行在今年內將利率提高到2%的水平。因此,英國失業率數據也成為了近期市場關注的重要數據。

自英國央行加息後,英鎊維持看漲趨勢,這有利於支撐英鎊兌歐元及其他國家貨幣,但由於美聯儲也啟動加息,英鎊兌美元的漲幅可能比較有限。

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