差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

俄烏激烈交火加劇市場震盪,哪些資產有助投資者避險?

本週俄烏緊張局勢受到世界矚目,成為最重磅的國際新聞,也引發了金融市場的巨震。就在昨日,烏克蘭外長稱普京對烏克蘭發動了全面戰爭,烏克蘭將進行自衛。而俄羅斯總統普京發表電視講話稱,決定在頓巴斯地區發起特別軍事行動。

 

隨著俄烏關係急轉直下,美國三大股指及亞洲股市昨日全線重挫,其中納指下跌約2.6%,道指創今年最低收市水平,下跌1.38%。高盛首席全球股票策略師奧本海默早前作出預計,如果用2014年俄羅斯入侵克里米亞的情況做參考,此次的烏克蘭危機,至少將造成股市下修5%幅度。

 

當市場瀰漫著對戰爭的恐慌情緒之際,全球的避險情緒也逐漸升溫,避險資產尤為受到投資者的關注。在市場行情動盪加劇的背景下,投資者可考慮持有的避險資產有哪些,近期走勢如何?下面我們會列舉部分資產進行分析。

 

黃金市場

 

俄烏之間的衝突升級,讓作為傳統的避險資產的黃金價格受益。金價已經連續兩日上漲,在本週四突破了 2021 年 6 月錄得的高位,上漲至 1918 美元。但是,金價未來仍存在較大的不確定性,對投資者而言,操作上有一定難度。

 

聯合國安理會已經就烏克蘭問題舉行緊急會議。短期來看,俄羅斯在烏克蘭發動進攻性軍事行動後,以美國為首的西方國家將對俄羅斯採取反制措施,俄烏局勢未來仍然瞬息萬變,給市場帶來較大的不確定性,造成金價短線呈現走勢震盪,建議激進的投資者仍然可以嘗試逢低買入,保守者應以觀望為主。

 

天然氣和原油

 

俄羅斯作為全球主要出口天然氣和原油的國家,俄烏之間的緊張局勢也給原油和天然氣帶來巨大的影響,亞市布倫特期油已經率先突破了100美元/桶,為八年來首次,美油也站上97美元/桶。此外,小麥及大豆等農產品期貨價格也出現了廣泛上漲,其中芝加哥美國小麥期貨觸及10年高位。

 

當前市場對能源仍是供不應求,加上俄烏地緣政治局勢動盪,天然氣和原油在疫情之後需求大增,但OPEC成員國與俄羅斯為主的非OPEC陣營不願配合美國擴大增產,導致原油價格未來仍然有望進一步走高。

 

美元和日元

 

在貨幣方面,最為傳統的避險貨幣為美元和日元,所以地緣政治一詞只要出現,往往這兩種貨幣都會被關注,週四美元在亞市就跳空高開後觸及了1月底以來的低位。

 

雖然日元今年的現貨表現乍一看可能不太引人注目,但期權市場的表現表明,投資者將其視為一種保險押注,在股市波動的環境下日元的避險吸引力更突出,週四的日元也一度升至三週最高。

 

公債市場

 

每當避險湧現或者市場波動加大的時候,投資者往往會湧入發達市場債券,其中以美債領漲,週四亞市美國10年期公債收益率從1.9%上方回落,甚至一度靠近近期低點。此外在市場預計

 

未來一年美聯儲將加息150-175個基點,有可能進一步推高債券收益率並拖累股票估值,吸引資金進一步向具有保值性的資產流入。

 

除了上述資產之外,眾所周知,防禦性資產包括黃金、可轉債甚至是現金等。而在股市中防禦性板塊包括,必需消費品、資源類、金融類、電訊及公用事業股等,防禦型ETF也會更加吃香。俄烏之間的軍事對抗還在持續,金融市場的震盪或會持續,投資者入市應該更加謹慎,近期可重點觀察避險資產動向,並適當增加配置,為整體投資組合有效對沖風險。

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