差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英央行利率決議在即!加息幅度若不及預期無益於提振英鎊?

本周迎來“央行超級週”,多家央行即將陸續公佈利率決議,其中市場普遍認為英央行的加息幅度預計在75或50個基點。雖然英國8月消費物價指數(CPI)按年升9.9%,較預計的10.2%意外回落,但是仍處於高位並且有再度上升的風險。伴隨美聯儲和英央行相繼公佈加息決定,本周美元和英鎊是否會雙雙迎來新行情,也是市場關注的焦點。 

cpi

首先,市場對於英國通脹走勢並不抱以樂觀的態度,不但有經濟學家預測至2023年初,英國年度通脹率可高達15%,更有投行預測英國的通脹還會升至更高水平。一方面是由於能源危機所導致的天然氣等價格上漲,另一方面是因為市場認為英國在加息週期中的加息幅度不及市場預期那麼大,不但無法追上通脹升幅,而且此次加息可能再次低於美聯儲的加息幅度,從而可能導致英鎊兌美元繼續承壓。 

在過去一個月的時間裡英鎊總體走勢是下行,不過由於之前8月CPI數據意外低於市場預期曾出現反彈跡象,隨後又恢復了下行。英國疲軟的經濟增長力拖累了英鎊的表現,經濟衰退的擔憂正籠罩著這個國家,尤其是在英國第二季度GDP環比收縮0.1%、8月製造業產出和新訂單下跌幅度創兩年多以來最低的大背景之下,這讓英央行做出激進的加息決定舉步維艱。 

gbpusd chart-Sep-24-2022-02-05-53-67-AM

相較於英國,美聯儲和其他歐洲國家加息的態度非常堅決。瑞典央行在本週二宣布升息 100 基點,將主要政策利率提高至 1.75%,是近 30 年來最激進的緊縮舉措;歐央行早前也宣布加息75個基點;美聯儲在本週三的利率決議中如期加息了75個基點。 

如果英央行在今晚的利率決議中仍不能拿出歐央行、美聯儲那樣鷹派加息的勇氣和決心,英鎊低迷的走勢恐怕還會持續更長時間,甚至已經有經濟學家稱“如果英央行繼續加息50個基點無疑於是一種鴿派措施”,預計這樣的措施反而會不利於英鎊走勢,帶來可能的負面行情。 

處於升息憧憬中的美元近期一路上行,英鎊則一直處於劣勢,而且若在各國央行新一輪激進加息之後,市場對環球經濟景氣呈現負面情緒,作為避險貨幣的美元還有可能會上升。以美聯儲當前的表態和觀點,除非美國通脹有明確的回落路徑出現,加息的步伐可能並不會有所放緩,美元因加息而上升的空間仍然存在。 

從消息面上看,除了英央行利率決議,英國新一屆政府為協助民眾應對生活成本危機,預計於本週五公佈一份新的迷你財政預算案,市場也較為期待政府新政能夠為英鎊前景帶來一線希望,但是目前來看希望較為渺茫,估計並不能彌補利率決定可能對英鎊造成的負面衝擊。

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