特朗普威胁伊朗,科技股表现谨慎

随着特朗普总统加大对伊朗的威胁力度,科技股和其他资产表现出疲态。

NAS100 – 4H Chart
NAS100 – 4小时图表

科技股价格已跌至21696点,突破了5月份以来的上涨趋势。下一个上升趋势线有可能从该低点测试斐波那契水平,关键水平在上方。

在特朗普加入伊朗冲突的行列后,原油价格又下跌了4%,周二股指下跌。在最初淡化了美国的介入之后,总统开始加大战争谈话的力度,而该国的立法者要么参与其中,要么担心加入另一场中东的长期冲突。

在特朗普准备会见他的国家安全团队后,股市继续下跌,导致人们猜测该国可能即将加入对伊朗的袭击。以色列表示将加强袭击,而特朗普则表示希望伊朗“无条件投降”。

据估计,伊朗为中国提供了目前30%的石油供应,而且这场战争有可能吞没其他世界大国。

对科技股的另一个打击是对滞胀的担忧,即GDP放缓与通胀上升相一致。最新的零售销售报告和强于预期的进口价格报告增加了一些疲软,而房屋建筑商信心跌至2.5年低点。

美国5月份零售额下降了0.9%,比预期的下降0.6%还要糟糕,而5月份不包括汽车在内的零售额意外下降了0.3%。

这些较弱的数据点可能是关税早期影响的迹象,如果油价继续走高,这也是一种风险。在特朗普总统上周三宣布,他打算致函许多贸易伙伴,在商定的90天暂停的最后期限7月9日之前设定单边关税之后,投资者现在正准备在未来两周内听到负面关税消息。

本周市场转向周三结束的美联储为期两天的议息会议,市场预期联邦基金利率将维持在4.25%-4.50%的水平。这可能不会让总统满意,他一直对美联储有限的降息持批评态度。这将使会后的新闻发布会变得有趣,因为市场目前预计本周降息25个基点的可能性为0%。

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