差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

特朗普威胁伊朗,科技股表现谨慎

随着特朗普总统加大对伊朗的威胁力度,科技股和其他资产表现出疲态。

NAS100 – 4H Chart
NAS100 – 4小时图表

科技股价格已跌至21696点,突破了5月份以来的上涨趋势。下一个上升趋势线有可能从该低点测试斐波那契水平,关键水平在上方。

在特朗普加入伊朗冲突的行列后,原油价格又下跌了4%,周二股指下跌。在最初淡化了美国的介入之后,总统开始加大战争谈话的力度,而该国的立法者要么参与其中,要么担心加入另一场中东的长期冲突。

在特朗普准备会见他的国家安全团队后,股市继续下跌,导致人们猜测该国可能即将加入对伊朗的袭击。以色列表示将加强袭击,而特朗普则表示希望伊朗“无条件投降”。

据估计,伊朗为中国提供了目前30%的石油供应,而且这场战争有可能吞没其他世界大国。

对科技股的另一个打击是对滞胀的担忧,即GDP放缓与通胀上升相一致。最新的零售销售报告和强于预期的进口价格报告增加了一些疲软,而房屋建筑商信心跌至2.5年低点。

美国5月份零售额下降了0.9%,比预期的下降0.6%还要糟糕,而5月份不包括汽车在内的零售额意外下降了0.3%。

这些较弱的数据点可能是关税早期影响的迹象,如果油价继续走高,这也是一种风险。在特朗普总统上周三宣布,他打算致函许多贸易伙伴,在商定的90天暂停的最后期限7月9日之前设定单边关税之后,投资者现在正准备在未来两周内听到负面关税消息。

本周市场转向周三结束的美联储为期两天的议息会议,市场预期联邦基金利率将维持在4.25%-4.50%的水平。这可能不会让总统满意,他一直对美联储有限的降息持批评态度。这将使会后的新闻发布会变得有趣,因为市场目前预计本周降息25个基点的可能性为0%。

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特朗普强硬立场淡化伊朗局势降温希望,油价反弹逼近99美元

周四伦敦早盘交易中,WTI原油(CLc1)价格飙升至每桶99美元附近,抹去了此前的跌幅。此前,美国总统特朗普在黄金时段发表讲话,强化了对伊朗的强硬措辞,令近期达成外交解决方案的前景黯淡。布伦特原油(LCOc1)上涨1.8%至每桶102.15美元,跟随美国基准油价走高,交易员们将霍尔木兹海峡局势再度升

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市场围绕特朗普今早讲话波动,对中东局势是否缓和持谨慎乐观

要点 * 美国总统特朗普在今早讲话中表示伊朗战争的目标“即将完成”,但也表示如果没有达成协议,将打击伊朗的能源设施。此前美国政府已释出信号,暗示正朝着可能结束对伊战争方向迈进,市场继续以谨慎乐观的情绪对待最新进展。 * 美国2月零售销售增幅创七个月新高,但汽油价格上涨将抑制消费,关注会否进一步传导至

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中东局势似乎迎来转机,日内聚焦美国ADP就业和制造业PMI

要点 * 特朗普表示,美国可能在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动。据悉特朗普此前已向助手表示,即便霍尔木兹海峡仍大体关闭,他也愿意结束对伊朗的军事行动。此外,据悉有未经证实的媒体报导称,伊朗总统表示,只要能获得某些保障,该国已准备好结束战争。这推升了中东战事有望缓和甚至结束的乐观情绪,但是还需要更多消

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美油自2022年首破100美元,日内聚焦欧元区CPI及英国GDP

  要点 * 中东战事仍在持续,也门胡塞武装首次对以色列发动袭击,与此同时特朗普就停火向伊朗发出新威胁,美油自2022年以来首次突破每桶100美元。 * 美联储主席鲍威尔表示,可以等待并观察伊朗战争对经济和通胀的影响如何演变,并指出决策者通常会暂时忽略油价上涨等冲击带来的短期影响。在鲍威尔

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要点 * 也门胡塞武装周六自本轮战争爆发以来首次袭击以色列,伊朗战争扩大风险升温。 * 今日关注重点:欧洲夏令时开始,市场开盘和数据公布较冬令时提前一个小时。本周市场继续聚焦中东局势的发展,数据方面将集中关注各国的CPI报告,看是否会进一步反映中东战争带来的上升压力。此外,美国的3月非农就业将是引导

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