黄金价格再创历史新高

周二,随着投资者对经济不确定性做出反应,金价有史以来首次突破每盎司3500美元。

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

黄金-日线图

在第五次尝试高点后,黄金价格突破了3527美元,这可能会导致一些强劲的跟进。市场将开始为今年剩余时间内金价可能升至4,000美元做准备。

金融体系的压力促使投资者寻求避险资产作为对冲。招聘放缓与通胀上升同时出现。与此同时,由于对英国和法国经济的担忧,长期债券市场出现了压力。美元贬值也促使投资者转向黄金。

美国劳工统计局的数据显示,截至7月的三个月,美国平均新增约3.5万个就业岗位,较前三个月平均约19.6万个就业岗位的增幅有所放缓。

由于关税导致的价格上涨,通货膨胀水平也在上升。投资者目前普遍预期美联储本月将降息,这是对黄金的又一个提振。芝加哥商品交易所的数据显示,市场目前预计美联储降息25个基点的可能性为91%。

全球债券抛售震动了市场,长期债券大幅下跌。30年期美国国债收益率攀升4个基点,至4.97%,而英国借款成本触及1998年以来的最高水平。

欧洲央行政策委员施纳贝尔的鹰派言论暗示,欧洲央行可能不会在下次政策会议上降息。

纽约梅隆银行外汇策略师Geoff Yu表示:“发达国家任何地方的通胀都没有充分下降,这正在影响金融状况,导致股市走软,因为投资者持有的资产似乎更加集中于某些行业。”

一系列完美的因素将金价推至新高,而这是金价第五次尝试突破阻力位,这一事实可能会导致金价持续走高。

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