金价再度飙升,5000美元大关近在眼前

受地缘政治担忧影响,金价再次走高,距离5000美元大关仅差112美元。

XAUUSD – Weekly Chart

现货黄金 – 周线图

现货黄金价格延续涨势,连续三天飙升至4900美元附近。多头占据主导地位,逢低买入仍然是最安全的策略。

在特朗普总统就格陵兰岛问题发出威胁后,黄金的强劲涨势仍在继续。投资者担心此举可能导致欧洲对美国国债采取报复行动,因此正在寻找避险资产。

据称,一家丹麦养老基金正在抛售价值1亿美元的美国债券。该基金的投资主管表示,他们对美国政府的财政状况和不断上升的信用风险感到担忧。他们承认,格陵兰岛僵局使得这一决定更容易做出。

管理层表示:“这与美欧之间持续的裂痕没有直接关系,但这当然也增加了我们做出这一决定的难度。”

但投资者担心其他国家会效仿,从而引发另一场主权债务危机。安德斯·斯凯尔德声称,美国“糟糕的政府财政状况”是其抛售持股的主要原因。外国投资者持有约占美国未偿债务总额20%至25%的份额,总额约为8万亿至9万亿美元。欧洲投资者是美国长期国债最大的区域性外国持有者。仅欧元区投资者就占外国长期国债总额的约五分之一。

中国和日本也是美国国债的主要持有者。虽然与中国可能出现紧张关系,但日本更像是美国的盟友。然而,日本自身也面临着债务问题,如果美国继续挑衅其他国家,这些问题可能会蔓延至全球。

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特驳斥了欧洲各国政府可能大举抛售美国国债的想法,称此举“有悖常理”。

白银价格也创下95美元以上的新高,但在特朗普表示不会动用武力收购格陵兰岛后,白银价格在随后的交易时段有所回落。受此消息提振,股市也随之上涨,但在全球关系不确定性的背景下,悲观情绪可能持续。

雅德尼研究公司预测,由于巨额政府赤字和国际局势紧张,黄金价格今年将达到6000美元,到2030年甚至可能达到10000美元。投资银行分析师的平均目标价为4600美元。瑞士银行瑞银集团给出的目标价最高,为5400美元。

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