Tesla Stock Prediction Ahead Of Q1 Delivery Data

Tesla will release its latest delivery numbers this weekend, with analysts mixed on the outcome.

TSLA – Daily Chart

TSLA – Daily Chart

TSLA trades at $195.82 after a recent test of the $200 resistance level. The company rallied sharply from January but has since stalled.

Gordon Johnson of GLG Research cut his Q1 delivery estimates after a “demand crush”, which he sees for Q2. Johnson cited recent data from China and Europe, which he feared could mean lower-than-expected deliveries. The consensus estimate sits around 418k, suggesting a “beat” could happen, but Johnson was gloomier, saying: 

“With our model pointing to an avg. 1Q23 price cut across all of TSLA cars of -$6.0K/car, or -11.7% QoQ, vs. sales growth of just +5.2% QoQ, THIS IS NOTHING SHORT OF A DISASTER.” 

He continued: “Consequently, given TSLA’s 2023 price cuts, across all its cars, have averaged ~$6,000/car, assuming TSLA gets $1,500 recouped via cost savings/price hikes (and also doesn’t cut prices anymore throughout the year), its profit per car for the full year would decline by $4,500.”

Tesla Stock Forecast – TSLA

Johnson now expects $2.67 per share against the consensus of $3.98 per share. 

Deutsche also cut its delivery forecast to 416k cars from the previous estimate of ~432k. Analysts hold a $250 target for the EV maker’s shares. In the near term, Deutsche Bank thinks investors’ concerns over volume, price, and margins are “warranted.” That could keep the stock price lid, but they see Q1 as a “trough” for the deliveries.

Tesla Inc told investors on Wednesday that the $7,500 tax credit that investors have used since January will be reduced for its Model 3 model by March 31. The company is expected to receive guidance from the Treasury Department on sourcing its batteries.

US Officials told Reuters that the department could update its guidance on the EV tax credit due March 31, resulting in fewer vehicles getting full or partial credits. 

Traders should watch the $200 level for Tesla and see if it can break higher for a run to the following resistance levels of $206 and $237.

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