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The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs.
Important Notice - Fraud awareness
Important Notice - Scam alert
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Important Notice - Fraud awareness
Important Notice - Scam alert
The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs / Spread betting with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs / Spread betting work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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EURNZD Could Head Higher with Inflation Data

The EURNZD pair has been pressing higher in recent sessions and has economic data this week. 

Monday brings New Zealand inflation numbers; Wednesday will have the exact data for the Eurozone. 

EURNZD – Weekly Chart

eurnzd chart october 2022

The euro is pushing the recent highs at 1.7477 and could move to target 1.8000 this week. 

New Zealand inflation has steadily risen to 7.3%, but this month's number is expected to be 6.6%. If the number drops, it could confirm a peak in Kiwi interest rates. The New Zealand central bank hiked rates aggressively from 0.5% in October to the current rate of 3.5%. 

With inflation rising in the European Union, traders are betting that European interest rates will have to catch up to the New Zealand rate. 

Before the European inflation number, we will have ZEW economic sentiment for the Eurozone and Germany. Traders often watch this to get an outlook from economists on the economy's future path. The core inflation rate in Europe is expected to rise again from 6.3% to 6.8%. If these trends are confirmed, the Kiwi dollar can lose further ground to the euro. 

The European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey, a monthly survey of 14,000 adults from six-euro countries, forecast inflation the next 12 months and three years ahead at 5% and 3%, respectively. The central bank's goal is to get inflation back to 2%. 

"Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months increased slightly from -1.9% to -1.7%", said the ECB. 

Capital Economics has forecast further losses for the Australian and New Zealand dollar. 

"Though these currencies have fallen past our once-downbeat end-2022 forecasts, we now expect both to fall further as two key headwinds persist into 2023," said James Reilly, Economist at the group. 

"We don't think commodity prices will support these currencies, unlike earlier this year," added Reilly. 

The EURNZD can push higher into the fourth quarter but may hit a peak there if European energy supplies become strained this winter. The shadow of the Ukraine war also hangs over Europe, and euro bulls need to be on guard for any tensions escalating.

Last Updated: 17/10/2022

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.


 

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