差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

隨著通脹數據出爐,歐元/紐元可能走高

最近幾個交易日,歐元兌紐元不斷走高,本週還有經濟數據公佈。

包括週一將公佈新西蘭的通脹數據及週三將公佈歐元區數據。

歐元/紐元週圖

eurnzd chart october 2022

歐元正在推高最近的高點1.7477,本周可能會升至1.8000的目標位。

新西蘭的通脹率已穩步上升至7.3%,但本月的數字預計將觸及6.6%。如果這一數字下降,就可能證實新西蘭利率見頂。

新西蘭央行將利率從10月份的0.5%大幅上調至目前的3.5%。

隨著歐元區通脹上升,交易員們押注歐洲利率將不得不趕上新西蘭利率。

在歐洲通脹數據公佈之前,我們將看到ZEW對歐元區和德國的經濟信心等數據。交易員經常通過觀察這一數據,了解經濟未來發展的前景。歐洲的核心通脹率預計將再次從6.3%升至6.8%。如果這些趨勢得到證實,新西蘭元兌歐元的匯率可能進一步下跌。

歐洲央行的消費者預期調查是對來自歐元國家的1.4萬名成年人進行的月度調查,預計未來12個月和3年的通脹率分別為5%和3%,央行的目標是將通貨膨脹率恢復到2%。

歐洲央行此前預期未來12個月的經濟增長從-1.9%小幅上升至-1.7%。

凱投宏觀預測澳元和新西蘭元將進一步下跌。其經濟學家James Reilly表示:“儘管這些貨幣的跌幅超過了我們曾經悲觀的2022年底預測,但我們現在預計,隨著阻礙因素持續到2023年,這兩種貨幣都將進一步下跌。

並認為大宗商品價格不會像今年早些時候那樣對這些貨幣帶來支撐。

歐元兌紐元可能在第四季度繼續走高,但如果歐洲能源供應在今年冬天變得緊張,可能會達到頂部。烏克蘭戰爭的陰影也籠罩著歐洲,歐元多頭需要警惕緊張局勢的升級。

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