AUDNZD In Focus With Inflation & Ardern Resignation

AUDNZD will likely be volatile this week as both nations release inflation data on Tuesday.

New Zealand also saw the resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern last week, with the country’s leader trailing in polls and not expected to perform well in a coming election.

AUDNZD – Weekly Chart

AUDNZD - Weekly Chart

The New Zealand dollar was more robust last week, driving the pair under the 1.08 level. The uptrend is still intact for the Aussie dollar, but a pullback is possible, and traders must keep an eye on inflation this week.

Retail sales data showed a 1% decline in December, similar to November, and a gloomy outlook for a consumer-driven economy. PPI pricing data also showed a drop in business activity in December. Australian inflation is expected to rise from 7.3% to 7.5%, while the New Zealand figure is likely to slow from 7.2% to 7.1%.

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday that the worst of the country’s inflation crisis was over. Ahead of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data for the final quarter of 2022, Chalmers said he was optimistic that price increases would start to moderate in 2023. Chalmers also said the cost of living pressures would continue to hurt millions of Australians but added that relief would come in May’s federal budget.

“The Australian economy will begin to soften a bit this year and that is the inevitable likely consequence of higher interest rates and a slowing global economy,” he told reporters.

“That’s why our economic plan is cost-of-living relief in a responsible way and growing the economy without adding to these inflationary pressures,” Chalmers said. 

Jacinda Ardern quit her role as the leader of New Zealand after five and a half years. Her Labour party has been struggling in the polls. A poll released Friday using data before Ms. Ardern stepped down saw the party’s popularity fall to 31.7%, down from 1.4% last month, with the opposition New Zealand National Party on 37.2%.

Ms. Ardern’s announcement that 7 February would be her last day as prime minister came as a shock, and economists will now consider the effects of her replacement.

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