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Ahead of Global Inflation Releases, Focus Returns to Strait of Hormuz

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S.–Iran peace talks remain stalled, with tanker shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz still disrupted. President Trump even urged citizens to accept “high oil prices.” Early this week, watch for swings in market sentiment around the strait situation.

Today’s focus: U.S. August NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Forecast 10, Previous 15.60), which can provide a leading signal for the upcoming national PMI. Canada July CPI (Forecast +0.4%, Previous ‑0.4%); if in line, it could support CAD.

 

Global Market Review 17/08/2026

  • U.S. July retail sales fell MoM for the first time in 9 months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 retreated from record highs last Friday but still gained 0.4% for the week; Nasdaq +0.1%, Dow ‑0.57%.
  • U.S. Treasury yields rose last Friday, but the dollar fell.
  • Gold +0.7% last Friday, weekly +0.8%, supported by dollar weakness, closing near two‑month highs.
  • The Strait of Hormuz saw another tanker attack, halting shipping. Oil rebounded by over 1% last Friday.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:50 JP GDP Prel Q2 ***
  • 10:00 CN Retail Sales JUL **
  • 20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index AUG **
  • 20:30 CA CPI JUL **

August 18 (GMT+8)

  • 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate JUN **
  • 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index AUG **
  • 20:30 US Housing Starts JUL **
  • 20:30 US Building Permits Prel JUL **
  • 21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production JUL **

 

Markets Analysis 17/08/2026

20260817 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1598 / 1.1608
  • Support: 1.1547 / 1.1538

EUR/USD rose last Friday on weaker U.S. data, reaching its highest level since June 17, and extended gains in Asia on Monday to ~1.1580.

Analyst View: Attempting a breakout above the monthly range top. If successful, target 1.1600.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260817 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3590 / 1.3624
  • Support: 1.3482 / 1.3449

GBP/USD broke above 1.3500 last Friday amid weak U.S. retail sales, holding three‑month highs on Monday morning.

Analyst View: If sustained above 1.3550, could target 1.3600.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260817 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 159.40 / 160.05
  • Support: 158.73 / 158.06

Japan’s Q2 GDP grew 1.1% on an annualised basis, below forecast. USD/JPY fell for the second day, testing 159.

Analyst View: Broke above last week’s range top and is now testing support near 158.60. Must hold to maintain consolidation.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260817 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 83.56 / 85.03
  • Support: 80.58 / 79.09

Strait shipping outlook is uncertain. Oil rebounded last week, up 6.9% for the week.

Analyst View: Stalled two‑day decline. Needs a breakout above $84 to reverse the adjustment trend.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260817 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4450 / 4466
  • Support: 4364 / 4344

20260817 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 66.81 / 67.20
  • Support: 64.28 / 63.88

Gold rose last Friday amid weaker Fed-hike bets after retail sales data came below expectations, nearing $4,400.

Analyst View: Rebounded from weekly lows, now testing resistance near $4,450. Strait tensions may cap upside.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260817 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 53,971 / 54,170
  • Support: 53,498 / 53,295

Dow fell more than 100 points last Friday amid weak retail sales and Strait tensions.

Analyst View: Trading in a narrow weekly range. Strait situation may pressure the index.

Bias: Range trading

20260817 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30,204 / 30,550
  • Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Tech stocks mostly fell last Friday, though memory-chip stocks rose. Nasdaq dipped, but weekly gains were held.

Analyst View: Pulled back from late‑June highs. Holding above 30,000 preserves rebound potential.

Bias: Wait-and-see

20260817 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 63,453 / 63,829
  • Support: 62,235 / 61,865

Crypto market dips as Bitcoin falls below $63K within a narrow range amid big banks cutting 2026 targets.

Analyst View: Still in a weekly low range. Must hold support near 62,500 to sustain consolidation.

Bias: Low‑level consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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