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U.S. PPI Flat; Gold Dips on Profit-Taking Ahead of Retail Sales

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. July PPI unexpectedly held flat, further reducing market bets on a Fed rate hike in September. Tech stocks rebounded partially, lifting the S&P 500 to a record close. Gold was boosted intraday but adjusted lower on profit‑taking.

Today’s focus: U.S. July retail sales, forecast to rise 0.2% MoM. If data disappoint, economic concerns could weigh on the dollar and further weaken prospects for a Fed rate hike. Eurozone Q2 GDP revision is expected to remain at 1%.

 

Global Market Review 14/08/2026

  • Softer PPI reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September. Dow +0.13%, S&P 500 +0.65%, Nasdaq +0.8%.
  • Dollar index +0.02% to 99.96.
  • Gold briefly hit two‑month highs before profit‑taking drove a >1% decline.
  • WTI crude ‑1.6% on signs of weakening global demand and a sharp U.S. inventory build.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:30 RBA Gov Bullock Speech ***
  • 17:00 EU GDP 2nd Est Q2 ***
  • 20:30 US Retail Sales JUL ***
  • 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel AUG ***

 

Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)

  • Monday: JP GDP, CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production, CA CPI
  • Tuesday: GB Unemployment Rate, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US Building Permits & Housing Starts, US Manufacturing & Industrial Production
  • Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, GB CPI & PPI, EU CPI
  • Thursday: FOMC Minutes, AU Unemployment Rate, GERMANY PPI, CA PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing & Services& Composite PMI, JP CPI, GB Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence

 

Markets Analysis 14/08/2026

20260814 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1567 / 1.1581
  • Support: 1.1518 / 1.1503

EUR/USD rebounded slightly on Thursday on softer U.S. inflation. Focus now on Eurozone GDP and U.S. retail sales.

Analyst View: Mild rebound, but bulls lack an advantage. Needs to reclaim 1.1550 to break the downtrend channel.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260814 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3558 / 1.3591
  • Support: 1.3449 / 1.3416

GBP/USD hovered below 1.3500 on Thursday. UK growth beat expectations, but sterling fell for the second day.

Analyst View: Trading near channel bottom. Watch for support around 1.3450.

Bias: Pressured

20260814 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 160.05 / 160.89
  • Support: 158.73 / 158.06

USD/JPY edged higher on Thursday, hitting late‑July highs, but stayed in a narrow range.

Analyst View: Likely to consolidate. Bulls must hold above 159 to extend rebound.

Bias: Range trading

20260814 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 83.56 / 85.03
  • Support: 79.10 / 77.25

U.S. crude inventories rose most since Jan 2023; exports fell sharply. Oil retreated to ~$81.

Analyst View: Must hold $80 to preserve rebound potential; otherwise, risk toward $79.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260814 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4385 / 4414
  • Support: 4300 / 4263

20260814 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 66.57 / 67.54
  • Support: 62.03 / 61.04

Softer PPI reinforced bets against Fed hikes. Gold retreated on profit‑taking; silver also eased.

Analyst View: Gold hit weekly lows on Friday morning. Must hold above $4,300 to ease short‑term pressure.

Bias: Short‑term correction

20260814 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 54,170 / 54,377
  • Support: 53,498 / 53,295

Dow rebounded on Thursday after dipping to weekly lows, lifted by softer PPI.

Analyst View: Still in the low range. Needs to reclaim 54,000 to build bullish momentum.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260814 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30,551 / 30,984
  • Support: 29,869 / 29,442

Tech stocks rallied on Thursday on softer PPI. Nasdaq broke out to its highest since late June.

Analyst View: Breakout signals positive momentum. Holding above 30,000 could target prior record highs.

Bias: Improving momentum

20260814 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,569 / 65,125
  • Support: 62,762 / 62,216

Bitcoin stalled near $63,500 despite softer PPI. Producer inflation cooled more than expected, reinforcing bets on a Fed pause.

Analyst View: Still at two‑week lows. Needs to reclaim $64k to ease pressure; otherwise risks retest of lows.

Bias: Range trading

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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