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Busy Week Ahead: US ISM Manufacturing PMI Today

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

President Trump stated he would suspend new strikes against Iran if a swift agreement could be reached to halt Iran’s nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. U.S.–Iran talks may take place Monday. Risk appetite improved further Friday, aided by positive tech earnings, lifting equities. The dollar extended its decline, while gold and oil diverged.

Today’s focus: This week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report headlines a series of major economic releases, alongside SpaceX’s first quarterly report, lock‑up expirations, and final manufacturing PMIs across multiple countries. Volatility is expected to remain elevated. Today’s highlight is the U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast to rise to 54 (prior 53.3), offering insight into manufacturing resilience under current rate conditions.

 

Global Market Review 03/08/2026

  • U.S. equities closed higher last Friday, boosted by Amazon’s 15% surge. Weekly gains: S&P 500 +1.05%, Nasdaq +1.59%, Dow +1%.
  • Dollar index fell 0.19% last Friday to 99.812, down 1.64% weekly, its largest weekly drop since late January.
  • Gold fell by over 1% last Friday but posted its first monthly gain in five months.
  • WTI crude rose over 3% last Friday due to supply concerns, though weekly performance was negative.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 07:00 AU Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 09:45 CN Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **
  • 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI JUL ***

August 4 (GMT+8)

  • 20:30 US Balance of Trade JUN **
  • 22:00 US Factory Orders MoM JUN **

 

Markets Analysis 03/08/2026

20260803 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1577 / 1.1592
  • Support: 1.1497 / 1.1483

EUR/USD fell then rebounded Friday as stronger‑than‑expected Eurozone and German GDP reinforced ECB hike expectations.

Analyst View: After briefly breaking below 1.1500, EUR/USD recovered and hit highs since June 17. Needs a decisive break above 1.1550 to consolidate momentum.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260803 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3517 / 1.3560
  • Support: 1.3416 / 1.3382

GBP/USD recovered last Friday after reaching 1.3400, supported by dollar weakness, and hit a high not seen since July 16.

Analyst View: Closed near intraday highs, testing 1.3500 on Monday’s Asia session. A break could attract more buying toward mid‑July resistance.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

20260803 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 157.40 / 158.47
  • Support: 155.04 / 154.00

Yen posted its biggest weekly gain since February after Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed coordinated intervention with the U.S. to buy yen.

Analyst View: USD/JPY fell over 3% in two sessions, hitting lows since May 6. Watch 155 as key support.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260803 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 83.44 / 87.31
  • Support: 77.19 / 74.07

OPEC+ agreed to raise September output by 188,000 bpd. Peace talks and output increase kept WTI below $80.

Analyst View: After rebounding to one‑week highs last Friday, oil opened lower on Monday’s Asia session. Trading below 20‑day MA; a confirmed break could target $77 support.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260803 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4117 / 4142
  • Support: 4038 / 4014

20260803 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 59.02 / 59.74
  • Support: 56.66 / 55.92

Gold fell Friday to ~$4,020 but remains supported by hopes of U.S.–Iran talks.

Analyst View: MAs turned into resistance after last Friday’s drop. Short‑term downward pressure persists, maintaining consolidation.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260803 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52,823 / 53,061
  • Support: 52,065 / 51,830

U.S. indices rose last Friday after intraday swings. Dow posted modest gains, marking two straight days higher.

Analyst View: Holding above MAs, focus on resistance near 52,900.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260803 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 28,867 / 29,194
  • Support: 28,091 / 27,831

Nasdaq extended gains last Friday. Amazon surged, Apple fell 7%. Index recovered late, marking two days higher.

Analyst View: Closed near 10‑day MA. Whether support holds or breaks will determine shorter direction. Focus on ISM PMI.

Bias: Mildly bullish

20260803 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64,772 / 65,874
  • Support: 62,349 / 61,266

Bitcoin traded above $63k Sunday, rising slightly as markets absorbed Coldcard wallet losses and Trump Media’s BTC sales.

Analyst View: Failed to extend gains Monday’s Asia session, staying below MAs. Short‑term rebound capped; risk of retest below $64k.

Bias: Rebound capped

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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