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Markets Assess Middle East Tensions; Sterling Focuses on Key Drivers

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, while markets watch for possible U.S.–Iran negotiations. U.S. equities extended declines Monday, the dollar rebounded, gold stayed under pressure, and oil edged higher.

Today’s focus is UK employment data; with May three-month ILO unemployment expected at 5% (prior 4.9%). A rise would heighten concern over the economic outlook. Prime Minister Burnham may also announce short-term measures today. Eurozone July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to improve.

 

Global Market Review 21/07/2026

  • U.S. equities closed lower Monday: Dow -0.59%, S&P 500 -0.19%, Nasdaq -0.05%.
  • Treasury yields rose, and the dollar index gained 0.18% to 100.92.
  • Gold fell 3% as U.S.–Iran conflict escalated and energy prices surged, adding pressure to the metal.
  • Oil extended modest gains as markets assessed the Houthi blockade announcement and supply risks.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate MAY **
  • 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL **

July 22 (GMT+8)

NYMEX August crude contract expiry

  • 04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***
  • 14:00 GB CPI & PPI YoY JUN ***
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

 

Markets Analysis 21/07/2026

20260721 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1437 / 1.1448
  • Support: 1.1380 / 1.1363

EUR/USD fell toward 1.1400 Monday as the dollar strengthened and Middle East tensions escalated.

Analyst View: After three days of declines, the pair is hovering at the 20-day MA. A break lower would target last week’s lows and support below 1.1380, reinforcing the short-term pressured bias.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260721 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3510
  • Support: 1.3399 / 1.3349

Sterling rose then fell Monday. New PM Burnham pledged to announce short-term measures Tuesday to ease household burdens. Focus remains on UK employment data.

Analyst View: Holding above the 10-day MA for now. Watch whether today’s drivers push GBP/USD below 1.3400 or support a rebound, keeping the short-term pressured bias intact.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260721 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 162.71 / 162.87
  • Support: 162.33 / 162.17

USD/JPY consolidated near 162 Monday, close to 40‑year highs, with traders wary of possible intervention.

Analyst View: Hovering near 162.00. Staying above the 10-day MA is key for bulls to maintain control, supporting the high-level consolidation bias.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

20260721 US Crude Oil Futures (SEP) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 83.69 / 85.00
  • Support: 80.76 / 79.43

Oil accelerated Monday, hitting one-month highs as U.S. strikes on Iran and the Houthi blockade raised supply risks. Hopes for renewed U.S.–Iran talks capped gains.

Analyst View: Volatility increased Monday, with signs of slowing momentum. Watch for a pullback toward $80 or fresh headlines to drive further moves, leaving the neutral consolidation bias unchanged.

Bias: Neutral consolidation

20260721 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4073 / 4104
  • Support: 3981 / 3942

20260721 Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 58.51 / 59.42
  • Support: 55.59 / 54.70

Gold fell near $4,000 on Monday as geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices lifted rate expectations.

Analyst View: Gold recovered some losses but remains capped by daily MAs. Potential to retest resistance, but failure could send prices back toward $4,000, in line with the mild rebound bias.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260721 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52,304 / 52,539
  • Support: 51,601 / 51,306

U.S. equities fell Monday as geopolitical risks and caution ahead of tech earnings weighed. Dow dropped for a third day, hitting three-week lows.

Analyst View: Rejected at daily MAs, accelerating lower. Watch for tests of 51,600 and below, keeping the short-term pressured bias aligned.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260721 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 28,856 / 28,993
  • Support: 28,402 / 28,225

Tech stocks closed mixed Monday. The semiconductor index spiked then retreated. Nasdaq opened higher but closed lower as markets awaited earnings.

Analyst View: Nasdaq lifted off early June lows but needs to break above 29,000 to sustain rebound momentum. Otherwise, risk of range trading persists, supporting the short-term pressured bias.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

20260721 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 66,485 / 67,425
  • Support: 64,417 / 63,508

Bitcoin rose above $65,000 Monday after weekend stagnation, supported by technical rebounds despite cautious sentiment from U.S.–Iran tensions and rising rates.

Analyst View: BTC/USD found support at key MAs, rebounding to mid-June highs. Short-term rebound may continue, but resistance above $67,000 could cap gains, fitting the mild rebound bias.

Bias: Mild rebound

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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