(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryTrump has extended the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting Tehran’s submission of a new peace proposal, but tensions between the U.S. and Iran have risen again after Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said peace talks cannot resume unless the U.S. lifts its port blockade. Today’s main focus is on global manufacturing and services PMIs. The market broadly expects the U.S. April manufacturing PMI to ease modestly to 52.5, while the services PMI is seen at 50.3. If the services PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, it would trigger deeper concerns about U.S. economic momentum; if the data stays above 52, the soft-landing narrative would gain fresh support. The Eurozone April flash PMI is also expected to weaken slightly to 50.8, as elevated energy costs increasingly weigh on industrial activity. |
Global Market Review 23/04/2026
U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, and U.S. equities rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs. The Dow Jones rose 0.69%, the S&P 500 gained 1.05%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.64%. The U.S. dollar also moved higher amid persistent uncertainty over U.S.-Iran relations.
Gold rebounded on dip buying as investors awaited signs that U.S.-Iran peace talks could resume. Spot gold rose 0.55% to $4,737.78 per ounce. Oil prices also closed higher, supported by declines in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, as well as reports that at least three container ships were fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz and that progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks remained limited.
Key Events Today:
- 07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR **
- 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR **
- 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR **
- 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash APR ***
Tomorrow:
- 07:30 JP CPI YoY MAR ***
- 14:00 GB Retail Sales YoY MAR ** *
- 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate APR **
- 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM FEB **
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR ***
Markets Analysis 23/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1773/1.1835
- Support: 1.1674/1.1624
EURUSD slipped to 1.1709 as a firmer dollar and stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy weighed on the pair. The euro remained under pressure as markets weighed ceasefire hopes against a conflict with no clear end in sight.
Analyst View: EURUSD has shifted from an upward extension into correction mode after failing to hold above 1.1773. The broader structure remains intact, but unless the pair stabilises quickly, pressure may continue to build towards 1.1674–1.1624.
Bias: Weak consolidation around 1.1700
- Resistance: 1.3555/1.3603
- Support: 1.3432/1.3395
GBPUSD eased as the stronger dollar regained some ground amid geopolitical uncertainty and reduced Fed easing expectations. Sterling stayed relatively soft, with broader risk sentiment still vulnerable to Middle East headlines.
Analyst View: GBPUSD remains under mild pressure after failing to hold above the 1.3555 level. The broader structure has not fully deteriorated, but near-term price action suggests sterling is still struggling to regain stronger upward momentum.
Bias: Weak consolidation around 1.3500
- Resistance: 159.71/160.04
- Support: 159.03/158.69
USDJPY held near 159.45 as firmer U.S. yields and a stronger dollar offset any safe-haven boost to the yen. The pair remained close to the upper end of its range, keeping intervention concerns alive.
Analyst View: USDJPY is firm but not yet fully through the upper range. The pair is moving towards 159.71–160.04, where selling interest may become more noticeable. For now, the tone remains supported, though the move still looks more probing than decisive.
Bias: Range-bound consolidation
- Resistance: 101.06/105.00
- Support: 89.31/84.37
WTI rose above $92 as tighter fuel inventories and fresh fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lifted the risk premium again. With no timetable for ending the conflict, oil remained highly sensitive to every geopolitical headline.
Analyst View: WTI is recovering, but the market is approaching a more demanding phase on the chart. The rebound has improved the tone, although $101.06–$105.00 remains a meaningful ceiling. At this stage, the move looks constructive, but not yet strong enough to suggest the upside is fully open.
Bias: Trading within the moving-average range
- Resistance: 4784/4811
- Support: 4695/4667
- Resistance: 79.32/82.51
- Support: 74.27/71.74
Gold rebounded towards $4,736 on bargain buying after the sharp prior drop, but higher rates and Warsh’s comments capped the recovery. The metal remained supported by geopolitical risk, though not enough to restore strong upside momentum.
Analyst View: Mixed bullish and bearish forces are making it difficult for gold to establish a clear short-term trend. The metal is expected to remain range-bound between the major daily moving averages. The 20-day moving average is key to defending the $4,700 level, while the 10-day moving average remains the main obstacle to reaching $4,800.
Bias: Trading within the moving-average range
- Resistance: 50513/51146
- Support: 49071/48428
The Dow advanced 0.69% as strong earnings and an extended ceasefire lifted sentiment, even though tensions in Iran remained unresolved. Investors welcomed the pause in escalation, but the broader backdrop remained fragile.
Analyst View: The Dow continues to recover, though the advance is approaching a stronger resistance band at 50,513–51,146. The structure remains constructive above 48,428, but further gains may be more measured rather than through an immediate breakout.
Bias: High-level range consolidation
- Resistance: 27182/27471
- Support: 26592/26308
The NAS100 jumped 1.64% to a record close, as strong tech earnings and semiconductor momentum dominated the session. Optimism improved markedly, though the rally still sat alongside unresolved geopolitical and rate uncertainty.
Analyst View: The NAS100 remains in a well-supported uptrend, with price still above the 26,308–26,592 support zone. Momentum is clearly positive, although the index is approaching a more significant resistance area near 27,182–27,471, where the advance may encounter heavier supply.
Bias: Staying elevated
- Resistance: 79478/80172
- Support: 76613/76067
Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 and briefly topped $79,000 as Trump’s ceasefire extension improved risk appetite, with renewed institutional buying providing support. However, tensions around Hormuz and the unresolved U.S.-Iran backdrop kept the rally from looking fully carefree.
Analyst View: Bitcoin remains well-bid following the recent advance, but the price is now just below $79,478–$80,172, where resistance is more meaningful. The structure still favours buyers in the $76,067–$76,613 range, although the near-term upside may become less straightforward.
Bias: Moderately bullish.
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