(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryAlthough the U.S. Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second day, President Trump said U.S.-Iran talks could restart in Pakistan within two days. Together with softer-than-expected U.S. PPI, this helped keep risk appetite supported. The IMF cut its global growth forecast and warned that a worsening Iran crisis could push the world toward recession. Fed official Austan Goolsbee said persistent war-driven oil strength could delay rate cuts until 2027. Today’s focus will include Eurozone February industrial production, which is expected to return to modest growth after previous contraction, and the U.S. April New York Fed manufacturing index, which is expected to remain in negative territory. The main spotlight will then turn to the Fed’s Beige Book due early the next day, as the latest survey should reflect the initial impact of Middle East tensions, with particular attention on rising inflation and weakening consumer optimism. |
Global Market Review 15/04/2026
U.S. March PPI rose less than expected on a monthly basis, although the war continued to push up energy prices. U.S. stocks extended gains on Tuesday as optimism over the Middle East situation lifted sentiment. The Dow Jones rose 0.66% to its highest close since early March, the S&P 500 gained 1.1% and moved closer to its January record high, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.96%, marking its tenth consecutive session of gains. The U.S. dollar index continued to weaken as soft inflation data and improving global sentiment triggered broad-based selling of the dollar.
Gold closed 2% higher yesterday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, while expectations of renewed U.S.-Iran talks also helped ease inflation concerns. Oil prices fell noticeably as markets hoped Iran would restart negotiations with the United States to end the conflict that has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Events Today:
- 17:00 EU Industrial Production FEB **
- 20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index APR **
- 22:30 EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock **
Tomorrow:
- 02:00 Fed Beige Book ***
- 09:30 AU Unemployment Rate MAR **
- 10:00 CN GDP YoY Q1 **
- 10:00 CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production MAR **
- 14:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production FEB **
- 17:00 EU CPI Final YoY MAR **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:15 US Manufacturing & Industrial Production MAR **
Markets Analysis 15/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1835/1.1884
- Support: 1.1723/1.1673
EURUSD rose to 1.1796 as softer U.S. PPI and renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran talks weighed on the dollar. The pair remained supported by improving risk sentiment, though gains may slow if optimism about peace pulls safe-haven flows back.
Analyst View: EURUSD is holding near the top of its recent advance, with 1.1835–1.1884 now the next key upside zone. The move remains constructive, but after the sharp run-up, follow-through may become less linear as the pair approaches stronger resistance.
Bias: Consolidating around 1.1800
- Resistance: 1.3639/1.3677
- Support: 1.3516/1.3479
Since mid-February, broad dollar weakness and stronger risk appetite have lifted sterling. Cooling oil prices helped the move, though traders may turn more cautious if diplomatic momentum starts to fade.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is holding near the top of its recent climb, with 1.3639–1.3677 now the next zone to watch for upside. The structure remains firm, but after such a sharp recovery, gains may not come through as quickly.
Bias: Looking for a break above 1.3600
- Resistance: 159.26/159.47
- Support: 158.61/158.34
USDJPY fell to 158.72 as the dollar weakened after softer U.S. inflation data and optimism about renewed diplomacy. Even so, downside may remain limited, with markets still alert to oil-linked inflation risks and shifting BoJ expectations.
Analyst View: USD/JPY remains in a slightly bearish tone, with rebounds continuing to fade below 159.26–159.47. Unless that cap is breached, the pair may continue to gravitate towards 158.34–158.61 rather than regain stronger upside momentum.
Bias: Bearish below 159
- Resistance: 101.03/104.97
- Support: 84.37/80.50
WTI fell sharply to around $91.43 as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks eased immediate supply fears. With the market refocusing on diplomacy and weaker demand projections, crude may remain under pressure unless blockade risks escalate again.
Analyst View: WTI is losing ground quickly, and the break back below the 101.03–104.97 supply zone shifts the tone clearly lower. Unless buyers reclaim that area, the market may remain vulnerable to a deeper unwind towards 84.37–80.50.
Bias: Watching prior lows for support
- Resistance: 4886/498
- Support: 4736/4643
- Resistance: 82.36/85.72
- Support: 75.54/72.13
Gold held near $4,837 after rallying more than 2%, supported by a weaker dollar and renewed hopes for diplomacy. Lower oil prices also eased some inflationary pressure, but the metal remains sensitive to how negotiations reshape Fed expectations.
Analyst View: Gold is holding its bid and edging back towards the upper end of the recent range, with 4,886 now the next meaningful checkpoint. As long as the price remains above 4,643, the path of least resistance still appears to be tilted to the upside.
Bias: Bullish in the short term
- Resistance: 49080/49710
- Support: 47799/47159
The Dow extended its gains to its highest close since early March, supported by softer inflation, falling oil prices, and fresh hopes for a diplomatic path in the Middle East. Strong earnings provided further support, though sentiment still hinges on negotiations holding together.
Analyst View: The Dow is firming again after rebounding from the 47,799 area. A move towards 49,080–49,710 would keep the recovery narrative alive, while hesitation here could point to a market still rebuilding rather than fully back in trend.
Bias: Bullish in the short term
- Resistance: 26308/26592
- Support: 25344/24974
NAS100 jumped 2% as lower yields, softer inflation pressures, and strong tech earnings sentiment boosted growth stocks. Hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks further improved risk appetite, helping the index outperform the broader market.
Analyst View: The NAS100 is rebounding from the 25,344 support area. A push into 26,308–26,592 would reinforce the recovery, while hesitation here may suggest that momentum is becoming more selective.
Bias: Bullish in the short term
- Resistance: 76397/77231
- Support: 73695/72846
Bitcoin briefly topped $76,000 before easing, as softer U.S. PPI, falling oil prices, and renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran talks boosted overall risk appetite. Even so, the pullback suggests traders remain cautious about chasing strength at higher levels.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is still trading in a constructive range above $72,846–$73,695, though the pace has cooled after the latest push. A move into $76,397–$77,231 would keep the rally intact, while stalling below that zone may point to consolidation rather than immediate follow-through.
Bias: Mildly bullish
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