(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary* Trump warned of potential U.S. escalation against Iran within 2–3 weeks if no deal is reached, reversing market optimism and heightening geopolitical uncertainty. * Focus shifts to U.S. March NFP (forecast +55K, unemployment 4.4%), though the data may not fully reflect recent Middle East tensions and could be seen as a technical rebound. * With Good Friday holidays limiting liquidity, market reactions may be muted today and spill over into next week. |
Global Market Review
U.S. equities closed mixed on Thursday, as Trump’s hawkish rhetoric toward Iran ahead of the long holiday weekend erased earlier optimism. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.36%, the Nasdaq gained 4.44%, and the Dow Jones advanced 2.96%. 03/04/2026
The U.S. dollar rebounded sharply after two consecutive sessions of decline, as Trump’s comments weakened expectations for a swift resolution to the conflict, boosting safe-haven demand. Initial jobless claims fell from 211K to 202K, suggesting that the labour market remains relatively resilient.
Trump’s remarks also drove both the U.S. dollar and oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $4,675 per ounce. Oil prices surged, with U.S. crude rising more than 13% in volatile trading and Brent crude jumping nearly 8%, as fears of prolonged supply disruptions intensified. JPMorgan warned that if supply disruptions persist into mid-May, oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel.
Key Events Today:
Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States, Hong Kong Holiday
- 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **
- 09:45 CN Services & Composite PMI MAR **
- 20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls MAR ***
- 21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final MAR **
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: AU, CN, NZ, UK Holiday; CA Services & Composite PMI MAR, US ISM Services PMI
- Tuesday: Global Services & Composite PMI Final MAR (AU, GER, EU, GB); US Durable Goods Orders FEB
- Wednesday: US API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change; RBNZ Interest Rate Decision; EU Germany Factory Orders FEB; EU PPI & Retail Sales FEB
- Thursday: FOMC Minutes; EU Germany Industrial Production FEB; US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4; US Core PCE Price Index FEB; US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: JP PPI MAR; CN CPI & PPI MAR; EU Germany CPI Final MAR; US CPI MAR; CA Unemployment Rate MAR; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR
Markets Analysis 03/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1588/1.1611
- Support: 1.1490/1.1466
EURUSD fell 0.45% to 1.1536 as the “peace rally” stalled. Trump’s lack of a clear exit timeline and renewed military threats shifted flows back to the USD, erasing earlier gains as markets reassessed the geopolitical risk premium.
Analyst View: EURUSD is oscillating within an ascending channel, struggling to sustain momentum above the 1.1600 handle. The technical rejection at the 1.1588 (0.852 Fib) level shifts focus back to the 1.1518 support zone. Expect defensive consolidation unless a concrete diplomatic roadmap emerges.
Bias: Bearish below 1.1550
- Resistance: 1.3287/1.3318
- Support: 1.3187/1.3155
Sterling dropped 0.63% to 1.3222 after BoE Governor Bailey dismissed premature rate-hike bets. The initial de-escalation optimism evaporated following Trump’s national address, which favoured military posturing over an immediate ceasefire, pressuring the Pound lower.
Analyst View: GBPUSD remains trapped in a descending channel, having been rejected by the 1.3287 resistance. The BoE’s cautionary tone on rates has cooled bullish momentum. Expect a test of the 1.3187 (1.116 Fib) support as the Dollar regains its footing.
Bias: Bearish below 1.3250
- Resistance: 160.12/160.46
- Support: 158.99/158.64
USDJPY surged 0.5% to 159.57, hitting its highest levels in weeks. Trump’s “stone age” rhetoric reignited USD safe-haven demand, though the move is increasingly cautious as the pair nears the critical 160.00 intervention threshold.
Analyst View: USDJPY is navigating an uptrend channel where volatility is clearly expanding. While geopolitical tailwinds target the 160.12 resistance, the proximity to historical intervention zones suggests bulls are “running out of oxygen” as they approach the psychological 160.00 ceiling.
Bias: Mild bullish bias at elevated levels
- Resistance: 119.60/124.56
- Support: 103.27/98.22
WTI skyrocketed over 13% to $112.06, marking its largest absolute daily gain since 2020. The rally followed Trump’s vow to “obliterate” Iran’s infrastructure and the UAE’s push for a UN mandate to forcefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, effectively pricing in a massive supply shock.
Analyst View: WTI has executed a structural breakout from its broadening wedge, entering a parabolic price discovery phase. Having cleared the 108.31 pivot, technicals target the 119.60 resistance as the market aggressively prices in terminal supply destruction.
Bias: Consolidation near $110
- Resistance: 4815/4893
- Support: 4571/4495
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 78.91/82.34
- Support: 67.83/64.35
Gold plummeted 2.2% to $4,651.35, losing the $4,700 handle. Trump’s “stone age” rhetoric flipped the narrative from “safe-haven” to “inflationary-hike” fears. As the Dollar and yields surged on expectations of a Fed response to war-driven energy costs, the non-yielding metal saw aggressive liquidations.
Analyst View: Gold has suffered a structural failure, diving back within its ascending channel after a bull trap at 4,800. By slipping under the 4,699 pivot, momentum is cooling rapidly. Technicals now favour a retest of the 4,571 (0.736 Fib) support zone.
Bias: Range-bound between $4500–$4600
Dow Jones
- Resistance: 47001/47565
- Support: 45741/45188
The Dow fell 0.13% to 46,504.67 as oil-driven inflation fears returned. Trump’s vow to persist with Iran strikes dampened the early-week recovery, though it still closed its first winning week since the war began
Analyst View: The Dow is grinding within a descending channel, currently pinned below the 47,001 (0.736 Fib) resistance. While the 45,741 (1.0 Fib) floor is providing structural support, the lack of a geopolitical exit strategy keeps industrial sentiment capped.
Bias: Bearish below 46,700
- Resistance: 24506/24898
- Support: 23630/23232
The NAS100 rose 0.18% to 21,879.18, buoyed by the SpaceX IPO buzz. Tech stocks provided a buffer against geopolitical swings, allowing the index to secure a 4.44% weekly gain despite the looming inflation threat.
Analyst View: The index has initiated a high-velocity V-reversal from its channel floor, reclaiming the 23,630 (0.236 Fib) pivot. Momentum is aggressively targeting the 24,506 (0.5 Fib) supply zone. A daily close above this resistance is necessary to confirm a definitive trend shift.
Bias: Consolidating near 24,000
- Resistance: 69184/70488
- Support: 64963/63681
Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $66,813.7, tracking broader risk-off sentiment. Trump’s “stone age” rhetoric and threats to Iran’s energy infrastructure triggered a deleveraging event, though March’s $1.2B in ETF inflows—the first monthly net positive since October—provides a structural cushion against geopolitical volatility.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is currently searching for stability near the 66,244 (0.116 Fib) pivot. While structural support remains intact, the failure to reclaim 69,184 indicates a shift toward defensive consolidation as the market weighs “Trump-risk” against institutional accumulation.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish (Watch 65,000).
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