Market Highlight 04/02/2026
U.S. equities closed sharply lower on Tuesday as investors grew concerned that artificial intelligence could intensify competitive pressure among software companies, prompting caution ahead of quarterly earnings releases from Alphabet and Amazon later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 declined 0.84%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.43%. The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies except the Japanese yen, as traders consolidated recent gains driven by stronger U.S. data and reduced expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve stance. Meanwhile, renewed concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown weighed on overall market sentiment.
Gold prices rebounded strongly on Tuesday, recording the largest single-day gain since November 2008, as solid fundamentals attracted aggressive dip-buying interest. Spot gold surged 6% to USD 4,938.5 per ounce. Oil prices climbed around 2% after the United States shot down an Iranian drone that approached a U.S. aircraft carrier, heightening concerns that negotiations aimed at easing U.S.–Iran tensions could be disrupted.
Key Outlook 04/02/2026
Several countries will release final readings of January services and composite PMI data today. In the U.S., attention will focus on the January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to slow to 53.5 from 54.4 previously. Meanwhile, the U.S. January ADP employment report will be closely watched to see whether job growth continues to improve. Market expectations stand at 48,000 (previously 41,000). A stronger-than-expected reading could help ease concerns over a cooling labor market. In the eurozone, investors will monitor the January CPI year-on-year preliminary estimate, forecast at 1.7%, down from 1.9% previously.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final JAN **
- 17:00 EU Services PMI Final JAN **
- 17:30 GB Services PMI Final JAN **
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash JAN **
- 18:00 EU PPI MoM DEC **
- 21:15 US ADP Employment Change JAN ***
- 22:45 US Services PMI Final JAN**
- 23:00 US ISM Services PMI JAN **
Tomorrow:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM DEC **
- 18:00 EU Retail Sales MoM DEC **
- 20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***
- 21:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:45 ECB Press Conference ***
Markets Analysis 04/02/2026
- Resistance: 1.1890/1.1964
- Support: 1.1771/1.1711
EUR/USD edged higher toward 1.1770 as the US Dollar softened amid government shutdown concerns and delayed US data. Upside remains capped below 1.1890–1.1964 resistance, while 1.1711–1.1771 acts as key near-term support. Direction hinges on upcoming ECB guidance.
- Resistance: 1.3744/1.3807
- Support: 1.3605/1.3543
GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3700, supported by firm UK data and a softer US Dollar ahead of the BoE meeting. Markets expect rates to stay at 3.75%, limiting volatility. Technically, resistance sits at 1.3744–1.3807, while 1.3543–1.3605 remains key support.
- Resistance: 156.51/157.35
- Support: 155.67/154.83
USD/JPY edged higher toward 155.70 as the Yen remained under pressure ahead of Japan’s election, with fiscal stimulus expectations capping JPY strength. Despite broader Dollar softness, the pair rebounded from support. Technically, 156.51–157.35 acts as resistance, while 154.83 is near-term support.
- Resistance: 64.63/65.57
- Support: 62.56/61.63
WTI jumped back above $63.7 after buyers stepped in aggressively on renewed Middle East tensions. The rebound followed a clear defense of the $61.63 area, while upside momentum now slows as price presses into the $64.63 – 65.57 supply zone.
- Resistance: 5140/5280
- Support: 5001/4861
- Resistance: 96.55/102.45
- Support: 77.35/71.55
Gold rebounded sharply to around $4,935, reclaiming the $5,000 handle after aggressive dip-buying emerged from the $4,861 demand level. The bounce eased downside pressure, but price is now testing supply near $5,140–5,280, where momentum may pause unless geopolitical risks intensify further.
- Resistance: 49442/49651
- Support: 48964/48752
Dow Futures slipped 0.34%, hovering around 48,800–49,000 as risk appetite stayed cautious ahead of key earnings. Buyers continue to defend the 48,752 support zone, but repeated failures near 49,442–49,651 suggest upside momentum is fading unless sentiment improves decisively.
- Resistance: 25413/25522
- Support: 25170/25060
NAS100 slid 1.43%, trading around 25,200, as aggressive selling hit software and AI names. The breakout near 25,413–25,522 indicates sellers remain active. For now, buyers are trying to stabilize above 25,060–25,170, but sentiment remains fragile.
- Resistance: 79232/81256
- Support: 72944/70948
Bitcoin stabilized near $78,000 after a modest rebound, helped by strong spot ETF inflows and fresh buying from Strategy. The bounce looks corrective rather than convincing, with sellers still defending the $79,232–81,256 area. Unless risk sentiment improves further, upside momentum may remain limited.
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