U.S. stocks closed lower last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing down and the S&P 500 ending flat, after Intel issued a gloomy outlook that triggered a sharp selloff in its shares, dampening investor risk appetite following a volatile week. The S&P 500 fell 0.36% on the week, the Dow declined 0.53%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.06%. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to 97.571, posting its largest weekly decline since June at over 1%. EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.181, recording a weekly gain of more than 1%.
However, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that if Canada reaches and proceeds with a trade agreement with China, he will impose a 100% tariff on Canada. This statement triggered a shift into safe-haven assets at Monday’s market open.
Gold extended its rally last Friday, refreshing record highs and approaching $5,000 before gapping higher this morning to break through that level amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. Silver, after surging 7% last Friday, continued to push to fresh highs this morning. Earlier, Trump imposed additional sanctions on vessels transporting Iranian oil and announced that a fleet was heading to the Middle East, intensifying pressure on Iran.U.S. crude oil futures rose $1.71, or 2.9%, to settle at $61.07, hitting a more than one-week high and recording a weekly gain of over 2.5%.
Key Outlook 26/01/2026
As markets enter the final week of January, attention is focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Against a backdrop of escalating global geopolitical tensions, investors are paying particularly close attention to the Fed’s policy stance. In addition to the Fed decision, a series of important economic data releases will be published this week, offering a clearer picture of the global economic outlook. Investors will closely watch these data to assess the health of the global economy and its future direction. In the United States, durable goods orders for November and the January Dallas Fed Business Activity Index will be released. The market expects durable goods orders to rebound sharply to a 3.7% annualised rate, up from the previous reading of -2.2%.
Key Data and Events Today:
Australia Holiday
- 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JAN **
- 21:30 US Durable Goods Orders NOV **
- 23:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JAN **
Tomorrow:
- 23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JAN **
- 23:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JAN **
Markets Analysis 26/01/2026
- Resistance: 1.1897/1.1923
- Support: 1.1808/1.1773
EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.181 as broad Dollar selling accelerated, driven by Greenland-related geopolitical tensions and the DXY’s biggest weekly drop since June. Price has broken out of its prior range and is now testing resistance near 1.1897–1.1923, with upside room toward 1.1950 if momentum holds.
- Resistance: 1.3707/1.3733
- Support: 1.3621/1.3594
GBP/USD traded near 1.362 as broad Dollar weakness supported the pair, while a surprise rise in UK Retail Sales had a limited impact on Sterling. Price has surged back above the prior range and is now testing resistance near 1.3707–1.3733. A sustained break could extend gains, while failure risks a pullback toward 1.3621–1.3594.
- Resistance: 155.69/156.29
- Support: 153.75/153.13
USD/JPY slid sharply, with the Yen jumping to 155.855 after touching a near-18-month low at 159.2, as traders speculated about possible Japanese FX intervention. Tokyo officials warned they would act against speculative moves. Price has broken below the 155.69–156.29 zone, with downside risk toward 153.75–153.13 if selling pressure persists.
- Resistance: 61.48/62.34
- Support: 59.52/58.65
WTI climbed 2.9% to $61.07, hitting a one-week high as US sanctions on Iran and troop deployments raised Middle East supply concerns, with Kazakhstan’s Tengiz shutdown adding support. Price is pushing toward the $61.48–62.34 resistance zone, while pullbacks are finding buyers near $59.52–58.65.
- Resistance: 5132/5189
- Support: 4946/4889
- Resistance: 111.84/114.89
- Support: 101.97/98.87
Gold surged to a fresh record high, driven by geopolitical turmoil and rising expectations of US rate cuts. Safe-haven demand intensified as investors sought protection from policy uncertainty. Price is holding above the $4,889–4,946 zone, with upside momentum pointing toward the $5,132–5,189 resistance area.
- Resistance: 49481/49789
- Support: 48750/48436
The Dow Futures fell as Intel plunged 17% on weak revenue and profit guidance, while geopolitical tensions and earnings risks weighed on sentiment. Energy stocks continued to outperform, marking a third straight record close. Price is consolidating between the 48,436–48,750 support zone and resistance near 49,481–49,789.
- Resistance: 25817/25953
- Support: 25370/25231
The NAS100 edged slightly higher as major tech names like Microsoft, Meta and Amazon advanced, though the index still logged a weekly decline amid geopolitical risks. Investors are now focused on upcoming big-tech earnings for validation. Price is holding above the 25,231–25,370 support zone, with resistance near 25,817–25,953.
- Resistance: 89599/91193
- Support: 84440/82873
Bitcoin slipped 0.2% to $88,966, falling below $89,000 and heading for a roughly 5% weekly loss as weak crypto appetite persisted. Cooling U.S.–Greenland tensions and Strategy’s $2.1 billion buy failed to lift sentiment. Price is sliding toward the $84,440–82,873 support zone after stalling near $89,599–91,193.
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