Market Highlight 11/12/2025
The Federal Reserve delivered the expected rate cut and signaled it may pause further easing as policymakers await clearer signals on the labor-market trajectory, while inflation “remains somewhat elevated.” U.S. equities finished higher on Wednesday as investors continued to bet on additional policy easing, even though the Fed hinted it could pause its cutting cycle at the next meeting in January. The Dow rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 gained 0.68%, and the Nasdaq added 0.3%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 98.66. EUR/USD climbed 0.6% to 1.1694.
Gold reversed earlier losses and closed higher after the Fed cut rates, though uncertainty around next year’s policy path persisted. Spot gold rose 0.44% to $4,227.99 per ounce, while silver extended its record-breaking rally. Oil prices also ended higher after reports that U.S. authorities seized a tanker near Venezuela, heightening concerns over short-term supply risks.
Key Outlook 11/12/2025
Markets will continue digesting the Fed decision today. On the data front, attention turns to U.S. initial jobless claims, which are expected to rise to 220,000 (previous: 191,000), signaling further cooling in the labor market. Markets will also listen closely to remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey for clues ahead of next week’s rate decision. In the crude market, traders await the OPEC and IEA monthly oil market reports, with updated projections likely to influence oil prices.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 16:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision ***
- 17:00 IEA Oil Market Report **
- 17:50 Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks ***
- 20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **
- 21:30 US Balance of Trade SEP **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Tomorrow:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final NOV **
- 15:00 GB GDP OCT **
- 15:00 GB Industrial Production OCT **
- 15:00 GB Manufacturing Production OCT **
Markets Analysis 11/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1730/1.1747
- Support: 1.1673/1.1656
EUR/USD climbed toward 1.1694 as the dollar tumbled after the Fed’s 25 bp cut and Powell signaled no appetite for future hikes. Traders saw his softer labor-market tone as leaving room for more easing, lifting the euro broadly. Technically, the pair broke cleanly above 1.1673, and a retest of the demand zone could attract fresh buyers, pushing it toward 1.1730.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3455/1.3509
- Support: 1.3317/1.3275
GBP/USD extended gains as the dollar softened broadly, with traders leaning toward the view that the Fed is likely done tightening, even if more cuts aren’t guaranteed. The pair has reclaimed the 1.3317 support and is now carving out a series of higher lows. If the price can sustain above this base, dips may continue to attract buyers, pushing toward 1.3455. Momentum remains constructive as long as the rising structure holds.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.12/156.54
- Support: 155.18/154.75
USD/JPY slipped to 155.92 as the post-Fed dollar selloff extended, weighed by softer Treasury yields and Powell’s remark that the “next move is unlikely to be a hike,” reinforcing expectations for further easing and boosting yen sentiment. Technically, a breakout occurred near the 156.12 level; repeated failure to reclaim this area signals weakening momentum, potentially dragging the pair toward the 155.18 support.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.69/60.10
- Support: 57.98/57.59
WTI climbed to around $58.83 as the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela revived supply-risk concerns, overshadowing a smaller-than-expected U.S. inventory draw. Technically, price is holding near the rising trendline, and stability above $57.98 keeps room for a rebound toward the $59.69 resistance. A clean break below the trendline, however, could shift momentum back toward the $57 area.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4274/4304
- Support: 4180/4150
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 64.70/65.96
- Support: 60.58/59.34
Spot gold held near $4,226, supported by the Fed’s 25 bp cut and Powell’s refusal to rule out further easing, which traders interpreted as dovish. Silver’s fresh record high added broad precious-metal momentum. Technically, gold is hovering around the descending trendline—an upside break could open a move toward $4,274, while rejection risks a pullback toward $4,180.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48431/48744
- Support: 47719/47400
The Dow futures surged 1.05% to 48,057.75, outpacing gains in industrials. Powell’s remarks on a cooling labor market bolstered expectations of further easing, lifting sentiment across cyclical sectors. Technically, holding above 47,719 keeps momentum constructive, with scope for a push toward the 48,431 resistance.
NAS100
- Resistance: 26182/26452
- Support: 25293/25018
The NAS100 rose 0.33% as risk appetite strengthened after the Fed cut, though gains lagged behind the Dow and small caps. Lower Treasury yields supported tech, but upside momentum remained measured. Technically, holding above 25,293 keeps the recovery intact, with room to test the 26,182 resistance.
BTC
- Resistance: 93065/94520
- Support: 88274/86794
Bitcoin hovered near $92,000 after the Fed’s 25 bp cut, with upcoming $40B T-bill purchases seen as a potential liquidity boost. But price is struggling along the upper channel resistance, and repeated failures near $93K hint at fading momentum. If the $90–92K shelf cracks, BTC may slide toward the $88K area before bulls attempt another push toward $100K.
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